UnemploymentThe unemployment rate recession model (article link), has been updated with the September UER of 3.5%. The model does not signal a recession.
Here is the link to the full update.
The Dynamic Linearly Detrended Enhanced Aggregate Spread:
The updated level of this indicator, -263bps, above last months -268bps, confirms the January 2017 signal. Based on past history a recession could have started as early as October 2017, but not later than July 2020. The average lead time to previous recessions provided by DAGS was 15 months which would indicate a recession start for April 2019. (Note: All our other recession indicators are far from signal a recession.)
CAPE-Cycle-IDFig 9a depicts the CAPE-Cycle-ID and the year-on-year rate-of-change of the Shiller CAPE; the level moved from +2 to +0 end of May-2019. This indicator is described here.
To avoid the bear market, exit stocks when the spread between the 5-month and 25-month moving averages of S&P-real becomes negative and simultaneously the CAPE-Cycle-ID score is 0 or -2. (read more)
Estimated Forward 10-Year ReturnsThe estimated forward 10‐year annualized real return deccreased from 6.4% to 6.2% with a 95% confidence interval : 4.9% to 7.6 (previous 5.1% to 7.8%).
iM-GT TimerThe iM-GT Timer, based on Google Search Trends volume, is out the markets since 10/1/2019. This indicator is described here.
Trade Weighted USDThe Trade Weighted $ value has an inderterminate trend and remains strong.
TIAA Real Estate AccountThe 1-year rolling return for the end of last month is 5.26%. A sell signal is not imminent.