Monthly Update – June 7, 2019


Fig-8.-6-7-2019The unemployment rate recession model (article link), has been updated with the May UER of 3.6%. The model does not signal a recession.

Here is the link to the full update.


The Dynamic Linearly Detrended Enhanced Aggregate Spread:


The updated level of this indicator, -245bps, below last months -212bps, confirms the January 20, 2017 signal.  The recession eligible months are from October 2017 to March 2020. (Note: All our other recession indicators are far from signal a recession.)




Fig-9a-6-7-2019Fig 9a depicts the CAPE-Cycle-ID and the year-on-year rate-of-change of the Shiller CAPE;  the level moved from +2 to +0 end of May-2019. This indicator is described here.

To avoid the bear market, exit stocks when the spread between the 5-month and 25-month moving averages of S&P-real becomes negative and simultaneously the CAPE-Cycle-ID score is 0 or -2.  (read more)


Estimated  Forward 10-Year Returns

Fig-9b-6-7-2019The estimated forward 10‐year annualized real return are estimated at 62% with a 95% confidence interval : 4.9% to 7.6%, which are down 0.1% from last month.



iM-GT Timer

Fig-10-6-7-2019The iM-GT Timer, based on Google Search Trends volume switched to cash on 11/1/2018 and remains out of the market. This indicator is described here.



Trade Weighted USD

USD-6-7-2019 The Trade Weighted $ value is on a moderate rising trend.




TIAA Real Estate Account

Fig-11.-6-7-2019The  1-year rolling return for the end of last month is 5.25%.   A sell signal is not imminent.

Read more …



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