Monthly Update – August 2, 2019

Unemployment

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The Dynamic Linearly Detrended Enhanced Aggregate Spread:

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CAPE-Cycle-ID

Fig-9a-8-2-2019Fig 9a depicts the CAPE-Cycle-ID and the year-on-year rate-of-change of the Shiller CAPE; the level moved from +2 to +0 end of May-2019. This indicator is described here.

To avoid the bear market, exit stocks when the spread between the 5-month and 25-month moving averages of S&P-real becomes negative and simultaneously the CAPE-Cycle-ID score is 0 or -2. (read more)

 

Estimated Forward 10-Year Returns

Fig-9b-8-2-2019The estimated forward 10‐year annualized real return reduced from  6.2% to 5.9% with a 95% confidence interval : 4.5% to 7.3 (previous 4.8% to 7.6%).

 

 

iM-GT Timer

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Trade Weighted USD

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TIAA Real Estate Account

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