Unemployment
The unemployment rate recession model (article link), has been updated with the July UER of 3.7%. The model does not signal a recession.
Here is the link to the full update.
The Dynamic Linearly Detrended Enhanced Aggregate Spread:
The updated level of this indicator, -254bps, below last months -263bps, confirms the January 2017 signal. Based on past history a recession could have started as early as October 2017, but not later than May 2020. The average lead time to previous recessions provided by DAGS was 15 months which would indicate a recession start for April 2019. (Note: All our other recession indicators are far from signal a recession.)
CAPE-Cycle-ID
Fig 9a depicts the CAPE-Cycle-ID and the year-on-year rate-of-change of the Shiller CAPE; the level moved from +2 to +0 end of May-2019. This indicator is described here.
To avoid the bear market, exit stocks when the spread between the 5-month and 25-month moving averages of S&P-real becomes negative and simultaneously the CAPE-Cycle-ID score is 0 or -2. (read more)
Estimated Forward 10-Year Returns
The estimated forward 10‐year annualized real return reduced from 6.2% to 5.9% with a 95% confidence interval : 4.5% to 7.3 (previous 4.8% to 7.6%).
iM-GT Timer
The iM-GT Timer, based on Google Search Trends volume is invested in the markets 7/1/2020. This indicator is described here.
Trade Weighted USD
The Trade Weighted $ value has an inderterminate trend.
TIAA Real Estate Account
The 1-year rolling return for the end of last month is 4.80%. A sell signal is not imminent.
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