• For what is considered to be a lagging indicator of the economy, the unemployment rate provides surprisingly good signals for the beginning and end of recessions.
• This model, backtested to 1948, reliably provided recession signals.
• The model, updated with the March 2020 rate of 4.4%, does now signal a recession.

• For what is considered to be a lagging indicator of the economy, the unemployment rate provides surprisingly good signals for the beginning and end of recessions.
• This model, backtested to 1948, reliably provided recession signals.
• The model, updated with the January 2020  rate of 3.6%, does not signal a recession.

A reliable source for recession forecasting is the unemployment rate, which can provide signals for the beginning and end of recessions (Appendix B charts the UER recession indicator for the period 1948 to 2015). The unemployment rate model (article link) updated with the September 2019 rate of 3.5% does not signal a recession.
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• For what is considered to be a lagging indicator of the economy, the unemployment rate provides surprisingly good signals for the beginning and end of recessions.
• This model, backtested to 1948, reliably provided recession signals.
• The model, updated with the September 2019 rate of 3.5%, does not signal a recession.

A reliable source for recession forecasting is the unemployment rate, which can provide signals for the beginning and end of recessions (Appendix B charts the UER recession indicator for the period 1948 to 2015). The unemployment rate model (article link) updated with the September 2019 rate of 3.5% does not signal a recession.
Read more >

• For what is considered to be a lagging indicator of the economy, the unemployment rate provides surprisingly good signals for the beginning and end of recessions.
• This model, backtested to 1948, reliably provided recession signals.
• The model, updated with the July 2019 rate of 3.7%, does not signal a recession.
• However, if unemployment rate rises to 4.1% in the coming months the model would then signal recession.

• For what is considered to be a lagging indicator of the economy, the unemployment rate provides surprisingly good signals for the beginning and end of recessions.
• This model, backtested to 1948, reliably provided recession signals.
• The model, updated with the July 2019 rate of 3.7%, does not signal a recession.
• However, if unemployment rate rises to 4.1% in the coming months the model would then signal recession.

• For what is considered to be a lagging indicator of the economy, the unemployment rate provides surprisingly good signals for the beginning and end of recessions.
• This model, backtested to 1948, reliably provided recession signals.
• The model, updated with the January 2019 rate of 4.0%, does not signal a recession.
• However, if unemployment rate rises to 4.1% in the coming months the model would then signal recession.

• For what is considered to be a lagging indicator of the economy, the unemployment rate provides surprisingly good signals for the beginning and end of recessions.
• This model, backtested to 1948, reliably provided recession signals.
• The model, updated with the January 2019 rate of 4.0%, does not signal a recession.
• However, if unemployment rate rises to 4.1% in the coming months the model would then signal recession.

• For what is considered to be a lagging indicator of the economy, the unemployment rate provides surprisingly good signals for the beginning and end of recessions.
• This model, backtested to 1948, reliably provided recession signals.
• The model, updated with the January 2019 rate of 4.0%, does not signal a recession.
• However, if unemployment rate rises to 4.1% in the coming months the model would then signal recession.

• For what is considered to be a lagging indicator of the economy, the unemployment rate provides surprisingly good signals for the beginning and end of recessions.
• This model, backtested to 1948, reliably provided recession signals.
• The model, updated with the January 2019 rate of 4.0%, does not signal a recession.
• However, if unemployment rate rises to 4.1% in the coming months the model would then signal recession.

• For what is considered to be a lagging indicator of the economy, the unemployment rate provides surprisingly good signals for the beginning and end of recessions.
• This model, backtested to 1948, reliably provided recession signals.
• The model, updated with the January 2019 rate of 4.0%, does not signal a recession.
• However, if unemployment rate rises to 4.1% in the coming months the model would then signal recession.