- For what is considered to be a lagging indicator of the economy, the unemployment rate provides surprisingly good signals for the beginning and end of recessions.
- This model, backtested to 1948, reliably provided recession signals.
- The model, updated with the January 2019 rate of 4.0%, does not signal a recession.
- However, if unemployment rate rises to 4.1% in the coming months the model would then signal recession.
Blog Archives
The Unemployment Rate May Soon Signal A Recession: Update – February 1, 2018
Posted in UER
No Sight of Next Recession: Business Cycle Index Update 1/31/2019
Is your investment strategy protecting your assets from the next recession? Our Business Cycle Index is a tool to help you gauge recession risk.
Posted in BCI
No Sight of Next Recession: Business Cycle Index Update 1/24/2019
Is your investment strategy protecting your assets from the next recession? Our Business Cycle Index is a tool to help you gauge recession risk.
Posted in BCI
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