Monthly Update – FEbruary 4, 2022


The 2/4/2022 BLS Employment Situation Report shows that the unemployment rate increased by 0.1% to 4.0% in January 2022.



Fig-9a-2-4-2022Fig 9a depicts the CAPE-Cycle-ID and the year-on-year rate-of-change of the Shiller CAPE;  the level switched from 0 to +2 end of June 2020. This indicator is described here.

To avoid the bear market, exit stocks when the spread between the 5-month and 25-month moving averages of S&P-real becomes negative and simultaneously the CAPE-Cycle-ID score is 0 or -2. (read more)


Estimated Forward 10-Year Returns

Fig-9b-2-4-2022The estimated forward 10‐year annualized real return is 3.8% (previous month 3.7%) with a 95% confidence interval : 2.7% to 5.7% (2.2% to 5.3% ).



iM-GT Timer

Fig-10-2-4-2022The iM-GT Timer, based on Google Search Trends volume indicator is invested in the stock markets. This indicator is described here.



Trade Weighted USD

USD-2-4-2022 Will be updated later, the weekly FRED data series we used was discontinued and replacement series is daily and runs from 2015. We need to adapt our software and graphics first.




TIAA Real Estate Account

Fig-11.-2-4-2022The 1-year rolling return for the end of March is 18.80%, up from last month’s 17.85%.

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