Monthly Update – February 2021


The economic recovery from the Covid crisis remains tepid. The 3/5/2021 BLS Employment Situation Report shows that the unemployment rate dropped 0.1% to 6.2% The BLS reports 9.972 million are unemployed whereas the 3/4/2021 DOL reports that 18.027 million persons receive some form of unemployment benefit, or 11.25% of the labor force.



Fig-9a-3-5-2021Fig 9a depicts the CAPE-Cycle-ID and the year-on-year rate-of-change of the Shiller CAPE;  the level switched from 0 to +2 end of June 2020. This indicator is described here.

To avoid the bear market, exit stocks when the spread between the 5-month and 25-month moving averages of S&P-real becomes negative and simultaneously the CAPE-Cycle-ID score is 0 or -2. (read more)


Estimated Forward 10-Year Returns

Fig-9b-3-5-2021The estimated forward 10‐year annualized real return decreased to 4.7% (previous 5.0) with a 95% confidence interval : 3.1% to 6.1% (3.3% to 6.2% ).



iM-GT Timer

Fig-10-3-5-2021The iM-GT Timer, based on Google Search Trends volume indicator is invested the stock market since  7/1/2020. This indicator is described here.



Trade Weighted USD

USD-3-5-2021 Will be updated later, the weekly FRED data series we used was discontinued and replacement series is daily and runs from 2015. We need to adapt our software and graphics first.




TIAA Real Estate Account

Fig-11.-3-5-2021The 1-year rolling return for the end of last month is -0.63%, down from last month’s +0.23% and produced a buy signal.

Read more …





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