Monthly Update – June 2020


The 9/4/2020 employment report claims 8.4% UER (last month 10.2%) and a total labor force 160,838,000 for mid-August 2020. However, the 9/3/2020 unemployment insurance report shows 29,224,546 persons claiming UI benefits week ending August 15.  Thus 29.24/160.84 = 18.2% (last month 19.5%) UER calculated from the unemployment insurance claims for exactly the same period.



Fig-9a-9-4-2020Fig 9a depicts the CAPE-Cycle-ID and the year-on-year rate-of-change of the Shiller CAPE;  the level switched from 0 to +2 end of June 2020. This indicator is described here.

To avoid the bear market, exit stocks when the spread between the 5-month and 25-month moving averages of S&P-real becomes negative and simultaneously the CAPE-Cycle-ID score is 0 or -2. (read more)


Estimated Forward 10-Year Returns

Fig-9b-9-4-2020The estimated forward 10‐year annualized real return decreased to 6.3% (previous 6.8) with a 95% confidence interval : 5.0% to 7.0% (previous 5.5% to 8.1%).



iM-GT Timer

Fig-10-9-4-2020The iM-GT Timer, based on Google Search Trends volume indicator is invested the markets  since  7/1/2020. This indicator is described here.



Trade Weighted USD

USD-9-4-2020 Will be updated later, the weekly FRED data series we used was discontinued and replacement series is daily and runs from 2015. We need to adapt our software and graphics first.




TIAA Real Estate Account

Fig-11.-9-4-2020The 1-year rolling return for the end of last month is 0.07%, down from last month’s 1.05%.. A sell signal is expected within this month.

Read more …





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