Unemployment
![Fig-8.-9-6-2019](https://imarketsignals.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/Fig-8.-9-6-2019-100x100.png)
Here is the link to the full update.
The Dynamic Linearly Detrended Enhanced Aggregate Spread:
![DAGS-9-6-2019](https://imarketsignals.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/DAGS-9-6-2019-100x100.png)
The updated level of this indicator, -268bps, below last months -254bps, confirms the January 2017 signal. Based on past history a recession could have started as early as October 2017, but not later than June 2020. The average lead time to previous recessions provided by DAGS was 15 months which would indicate a recession start for April 2019. (Note: All our other recession indicators are far from signal a recession.)
CAPE-Cycle-ID
![Fig-9a-9-6-2019](https://imarketsignals.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/Fig-9a-9-6-2019-100x100.png)
To avoid the bear market, exit stocks when the spread between the 5-month and 25-month moving averages of S&P-real becomes negative and simultaneously the CAPE-Cycle-ID score is 0 or -2. (read more)
Estimated Forward 10-Year Returns
![Fig-9b-9-6-2019](https://imarketsignals.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/Fig-9b-9-6-2019-100x100.png)
iM-GT Timer
![Fig-10-9-6-2019](https://imarketsignals.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/Fig-10-9-6-2019-100x100.png)
Trade Weighted USD
![USD-9-6-2019](https://imarketsignals.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/USD-9-6-2019-100x100.png)
TIAA Real Estate Account
![Fig-11.-9-6-2019](https://imarketsignals.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/Fig-11.-9-6-2019-100x100.png)
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