iM Update – September 23, 2016

Market Signals Summary:

The MAC-US model  is invested.  Also invested are the “VMNFX vs. SPY Timer”,  as well as the “3-mo Hi-Lo Index of the S&P500” which  may sell next week.  The monthly update S&P500 Coppock indicator entered the markets in May.  The MAC-AU is also invested.  The recession indicators COMP and iM-BCIg do not signal a recession.  The bond market model avoids high beta (long) bonds, the trend of the yield spread is downwards. The gold  model is invested and the silver model exited the market on June 24.

 

Stock-markets:

The MAC-US model generated a buy-signal 4/5/2016 and thus is invested in the stock-markets. The sell-spread (red graph) is down from last week’s level and has to fall below zero to signal a sell.

 

 

The 3-mo Hi-Lo Index of the S&P500  is below last week’s level and at  5.46 (last week 6.95) still above the sell trigger of 5.0, and may generate a sell signal next week. 

 

 

The VMNFX vs. SPY Timer  signaled an entry into the stock  markets on 3/28/2016. For this model to exit the markets the indicator has to rise above the 2% trigger line, the indicator is below last weeks level.

 

 

The MAC-AU model is invested in the markets after it generated a buy signal on March 21, 2016. The sell-spread is near last week’s level and has to fall below zero to signal a sell.

This model and its application is described in MAC-Australia: A Moving Average Crossover System for Superannuation Asset Allocations.

 

Recession:

Figure 3 shows the COMP above last week’s  level. No recession is indicated.    COMP can be used for stock market exit timing as discussed in this article The Use of Recession Indicators in Stock Market Timing.

 

 

Figure 3.1 shows the recession indicator iM-BCIg above last week’s level. An imminent recession is not signaled .

Please also refer to the BCI page

 

 

The Forward Rate Ratio between the 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields (FRR2-10) is near last week’s level and far away from signalling a recession.

A description of this indicator can be found here.