For details on the BCI please refer to  iM’s Business Cycle Index replaces ECRI’s WLI.

For description of the BCI in off-peak-mode (BCIp) Fig-2 please refer to BCIp (or BCI in Off-Peak-Mode): 20 Weeks lead to Recessions

For a description of BCIw please refer to  iM’s BCIw: A Weeks to Recession Indicator


March 26, 2015


Business Cycle Index

BCI-3-26-2015The BCI  at 189.2  is up from last week’s upward revised 188.8.  The 6-month smoothed annualized growth BCIg at 17.6  is down from last week’s upward revised 17.6, and BCIp at 100 indicates that, for this business cycle, BCI is at a new high.

No recession is signaled.



Posted on Mar 26, 2015 | Leave a comment


Below are the graphs for the period 1967 to 2013 (these are updated on a irregular basis. For the latest BCI, BCIg and BCIp please refer to above weekly update)

BCI-fig1click on image to enlarge


BCI-fig2click on image to enlarge



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