For details on the BCI please refer to  iM’s Business Cycle Index replaces ECRI’s WLI.

For description of the BCI in off-peak-mode (BCIp) Fig-2 please refer to BCIp (or BCI in Off-Peak-Mode): 20 Weeks lead to Recessions

For a description of BCIw please refer to  iM’s BCIw: A Weeks to Recession Indicator


July 17, 2014

Business Cycle Index


The BCI at 178.5 is up from last week’s revised 177.5. The BCIg, the smoothed annualized growth of BCI, at 21.6 is also up from last week’s 20.3.


This week’s BCI does not signal a recession in the near future.

Posted on Jul 17, 2014 | Leave a comment


Below are the graphs for the period 1967 to 2013 (these are updated on a irregular basis. For the latest BCI, BCIg and BCIp please refer to above weekly update)

BCI-fig1click on image to enlarge


BCI-fig2click on image to enlarge



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