For details on the BCI please refer to  iM’s Business Cycle Index replaces ECRI’s WLI.

For description of the BCI in off-peak-mode (BCIp) Fig-2 please refer to BCIp (or BCI in Off-Peak-Mode): 20 Weeks lead to Recessions

For a description of BCIw please refer to  iM’s BCIw: A Weeks to Recession Indicator


October 16, 2014

Business Cycle Index

16-bciThe BCI dropped 0.4 points to 182.0 from last week’s 182.4. No recession is signaled by both the derived indicators; BCIg, which is  still  rising,  at 20.8 up from last week’s 20.4, and BCIp dropped to 95.4 from last weeks 100.0.



Posted on Oct 16, 2014 | Leave a comment


Below are the graphs for the period 1967 to 2013 (these are updated on a irregular basis. For the latest BCI, BCIg and BCIp please refer to above weekly update)

BCI-fig1click on image to enlarge


BCI-fig2click on image to enlarge



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