Knowing when the U.S. Economy is heading for recession is paramount for successful investment decisions. Our weekly Business Cycle Index (BCI) would have provided early reliably warnings for the past seven recessions.
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Blog Archives
No Recession Is Signaled By iM’s Business Cycle Index: Update January 14, 2016
Is the Stock Market Overvalued? — Update Dec-2015 — Estimating Returns to 2020 and Beyond
- Based on its historic trend, the stock market appears to be marginally overvalued.
- The historic trend suggests a probable real gain of about 20% over the next five years.
- Analysts’ long-term forecasts of stock returns made 4 years ago appear to have been unrealistically low.
- The Shiller Cyclically Adjusted Price to Earnings Ratio is relatively high (but not extremely high), and a market correction is possible.
The Unemployment Rate is Not Signaling a Recession: Update January 8, 2016
A reliable source for recession forecasting is the unemployment rate, which can provide signals for the beginnings and ends of recessions. The unemployment rate model (article link), updated with the December figure of 5.0%, does not signal a recession now.
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No Recession Is Signaled By iM’s Business Cycle Index: Update January 7, 2016
Knowing when the U.S. Economy is heading for recession is paramount for successful investment decisions. Our weekly Business Cycle Index (BCI) would have provided early reliably warnings for the past seven recessions.
Read more >
No Recession Is Signaled By iM’s Business Cycle Index: Update December 31, 2015
Knowing when the U.S. Economy is heading for recession is paramount for successful investment decisions. Our weekly Business Cycle Index (BCI) would have provided early reliably warnings for the past seven recessions.
Read more >
No Recession Is Signaled By iM’s Business Cycle Index: Update December 24, 2015
Knowing when the U.S. Economy is heading for recession is paramount for successful investment decisions. Our weekly Business Cycle Index (BCI) would have provided early reliably warnings for the past seven recessions.
Read more >
No Recession Is Signaled By iM’s Business Cycle Index: Update December 17, 2015
Knowing when the U.S. Economy is heading for recession is paramount for successful investment decisions. Our weekly Business Cycle Index (BCI) would have provided early reliably warnings for the past seven recessions.
Read more >
No Recession Is Signaled By iM’s Business Cycle Index: Update December 10, 2015
Knowing when the U.S. Economy is heading for recession is paramount for successful investment decisions. Our weekly Business Cycle Index (BCI) would have provided early reliably warnings for the past seven recessions.
Read more >
The Unemployment Rate is Not Signaling a Recession: Update December 4, 2015
A reliable source for recession forecasting is the unemployment rate, which can provide signals for the beginnings and ends of recessions. The unemployment rate model (article link), updated with the November figure of 5.0%, does not signal a recession now.
Read more >
No Recession Is Signaled By iM’s Business Cycle Index: Update December 3, 2015
Knowing when the U.S. Economy is heading for recession is paramount for successful investment decisions. Our weekly Business Cycle Index (BCI) would have provided early reliably warnings for the past seven recessions.
Read more >
With reference to Section 202(a)(11)(D) of the Investment Advisers Act:
We are Engineers and not Investment Advisers,
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