A reliable source for recession forecasting is the unemployment rate, which can provide signals for the beginnings and ends of recessions. The unemployment rate model (article link), updated with the May figure of 5.5%, does not signal a recession now.
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Blog Archives
The Unemployment Rate is Not Signaling a Recession: Update June 5, 2015
The Forward Rate Ratio: Predictor Of An Ongoing Stock Bull- And Bond Bear-Market
- Prior to recession the yield curve becomes inverted, as indicated by the Forward Rate Ratio between the 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields (FRR2-10) being less than 1.00.
- The FRR2-10 has recently peaked at about 1.20 signifying that US economic activity is in the expansion phase of the business cycle, far away from the next recession, with ongoing gains for the stock market predicted.
- Typically after peaks of FRR2-10 the yield of 10-year Treasuries rises, signaling a bond bear-market.
- When FRR2-10 falls to near 1.00 the transition from expansion to boom occurs. The average lead time after FRR2-10 becomes less than 1.00 to the subsequent recession start was 14 months for the last seven recession.
No Recession Is Signaled By iM’s Business Cycle Index: Update June 4, 2015
Knowing when the U.S. Economy is heading for recession is paramount for successful investment decisions. Our weekly Business Cycle Index (BCI) would have provided early reliably warnings for the past seven recessions.
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No Recession Is Signaled By iM’s Business Cycle Index: Update May 28, 2015
Knowing when the U.S. Economy is heading for recession is paramount for successful investment decisions. Our weekly Business Cycle Index (BCI) would have provided early reliably warnings for the past seven recessions.
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No Recession Is Signaled By iM’s Business Cycle Index: Update May 21, 2015
Knowing when the U.S. Economy is heading for recession is paramount for successful investment decisions. Our weekly Business Cycle Index (BCI) would have provided early reliably warnings for the past seven recessions.
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No Recession Is Signaled By iM’s Business Cycle Index: Update May 14, 2015
Knowing when the U.S. Economy is heading for recession is paramount for successful investment decisions. Our weekly Business Cycle Index (BCI) would have provided early reliably warnings for the past seven recessions.
Read more >
The Unemployment Rate is Not Signaling a Recession: Update May 8, 2015
A reliable source for recession forecasting is the unemployment rate, which can provide signals for the beginnings and ends of recessions. The unemployment rate model (article link), updated with the April figure of 5.4%, does not signal a recession now.
Read more >
No Recession Is Signaled By iM’s Business Cycle Index: Update May 7, 2015
Knowing when the U.S. Economy is heading for recession is paramount for successful investment decisions. Our weekly Business Cycle Index (BCI) would have provided early reliably warnings for the past seven recessions.
Read more >
No Recession Is Signaled By iM’s Business Cycle Index, April 30, 2015
Knowing when the U.S. Economy is heading for recession is paramount for successful investment decisions. Our weekly Business Cycle Index (BCI) would have provided early reliably warnings for the past seven recessions.
Read more >
No Recession Is Signaled By iM’s Business Cycle Index, April 23, 2015
Knowing when the U.S. Economy is heading for recession is paramount for successful investment decisions. Our weekly Business Cycle Index (BCI) would have provided early reliably warnings for the past seven recessions.
Read more >
With reference to Section 202(a)(11)(D) of the Investment Advisers Act:
We are Engineers and not Investment Advisers,
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