July 24, 2012     Foreword from dshort: In this commentary, Georg Vrba focuses on a less commonly appreciated aspect of moving average signals. We normally focus on the point of crossover, which is explicit in the signal terminology (e.g., Golden Cross, Death Cross). But Georg calls our attention to the peaks and troughs of the spread between the moving averages. The implications of this shift in focus are quite astonishing.

….. If history repeats itself we can look forward to good gains for the S&P starting late this year or early in 2013

July 24, 2012     Skeptics and devotees of technical analysis took notice last week when Albert Edwards, the closely followed investment strategist at Societe Generale, warned the S&P 500 was “on the verge of an ultimate death cross,” foretelling imminent major losses for the stock market. Edwards’ sense of doom is misguided. An ultimate death cross is mathematically impossible unless the S&P were to suffer an immediate and precipitous decline. Moreover, the signal would provide a positive outlook, if it were to occur.

The ultimate death cross is when the 50-month moving average (MA) of the S&P moves below the 200-month MA. The difference between these moving averages – the spread – must be less than zero for an ultimate death cross to occur. The spread will form a trough before the end of this year, irrespective of the level of the S&P over the next few months. This could be the harbinger of good news – a macro signal that the stagnation period since the year 2000 for the S&P is now finally over, and that a new secular bull market could commence.