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iM Update – June 2, 2023
Posted in pmp free update
iM’s Business Cycle Index Recovers but still Signals a Recession – Update 6/9/2023
- Knowing when the U.S. economy is heading for recession is paramount to successful investment decisions.
- Our weekly Business Cycle Index would have provided early reliable warnings for the past seven recessions and signaled the Covid 2020 recession one week late.
- The BCIg has signaled a recession warning mid March 2023, but BCIg recovered and is no longer signalling a recession.
- However the BCIw, also on recovery path, continues to signal a recession which now is estimated to begin in 9 to 22 weeks.
- It is too early to say if a recession has been averted, more likely is it is delayed towards the end the end of 2023 or begin 2024.
With reference to Section 202(a)(11)(D) of the Investment Advisers Act:
We are Engineers and not Investment Advisers,
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