Knowing when the U.S. Economy is heading for recession is paramount for successful investment decisions. Our weekly Business Cycle Index (BCI) would have provided early reliably warnings for the past seven recessions. This week, the BCI at 184.9 up from last week’s downwards revised 184.5. No recession is signaled by both the derived indicators; BCIg, now at 21.3 up from last week’s 20.8, and BCIp at 100.0 indicates that, for this business cycle, BCI is at a new high.
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Blog Archives
iM’s BCI Does Not Signal a Recession: Update November 13, 2014
Posted in BCI
The Unemployment Rate is Not Signaling a Recession: Update November 7, 2014
A reliable source for recession forecasting is the unemployment rate, which can provide signals for the beginnings and ends of recessions. The unemployment rate model (article link), updated with the September figure of 5.8%, does not signal a recession now.
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Posted in UER
BCI November 6, 2014
The BCI at 184.6 up from last week’s 183.4. No recession is signaled by both the derived indicators; BCIg, now at 20.8 up from last week’s 20.6, and BCIp at 100.0 indicates that, for this business cycle, BCI is at a new high.
Read more >
Posted in pmp BCI
iM’s BCI Does Not Signal a Recession: Update November 6, 2014
Knowing when the U.S. Economy is heading for recession is paramount for successful investment decisions. Our weekly Business Cycle Index (BCI) would have provided early reliably warnings for the past seven recessions. This week, the BCI at 184.6 up from last week’s 183.4. No recession is signaled by both the derived indicators; BCIg, now at 20.8 up from last week’s 20.6, and BCIp at 100.0 indicates that, for this business cycle, BCI is at a new high.
Read more >
Posted in BCI
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