A reliable source for recession forecasting is the unemployment rate, which can provide signals for the beginnings and ends of recessions. The unemployment rate model (article link), updated with the January figure of 5.7%, does not signal a recession now.
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Blog Archives
The Unemployment Rate is Not Signaling a Recession: Update February 6, 2015
The BCI Does Not Signal a Recession: Update February 5, 2014
Knowing when the U.S. Economy is heading for recession is paramount for successful investment decisions. Our weekly Business Cycle Index (BCI) would have provided early reliably warnings for the past seven recessions.
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The BCI Does Not Signal a Recession: Update January 29, 2014
Knowing when the U.S. Economy is heading for recession is paramount for successful investment decisions. Our weekly Business Cycle Index (BCI) would have provided early reliably warnings for the past seven recessions.
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With reference to Section 202(a)(11)(D) of the Investment Advisers Act:
We are Engineers and not Investment Advisers,
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