A reliable source for recession forecasting is the unemployment rate (UER), which can provide signals for the beginnings and ends of recessions.
The model was published in 2012 and has correctly signaled the 2020 recession.
The latest UER (August 2023) is 3.8%, signifying no recession. However, if the September UER is 4% or higher a recession will be signaled according to the model.
With reference to Section 202(a)(11)(D) of the Investment Advisers Act:
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