Blog Archives

iM-Business Cycle Index, 9/14/2023

 
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iM Update* – September 8, 2023

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iM Update – September 8, 2023

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iM-Business Cycle Index, 9/7/2023

 
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iM-Best Reports – 9/6/2023

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A September Unemployment Rate of 4.0% Will Signal a Recession

  • A reliable source for recession forecasting is the unemployment rate (UER), which can provide signals for the beginnings and ends of recessions.
  • The model was published in 2012 and has correctly signaled the 2020 recession.
  • The latest UER (August 2023) is 3.8%, signifying no recession. However, if the September UER is 4% or higher a recession will be signaled according to the model.

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Monthly Update – September 4, 2023

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iM System Performance as of September 1, 2023

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iM Update* – September 1, 2023

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iM Update – September 1, 2023

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