iM Update – October 7, 2022


Market Signals Summary:

The Hi-Lo Index of the S&P 500, the MAC US, the iM-Google Trend Timer as well as the S&P 500 Coppock Indicator are disinvested from the markets.   The bond market model begins to favor high beta (long) bonds. The Forward Rate Ratio between the 2 and 10 year rates inverted beginning August thus signalling a recession. Also the growth of the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Indicator is sinalling a recession. The Gold Coppock is invested in gold, so is the iM-Gold Timer. The Silver Coppock model is dis-invested in silver.


Fig-2.-10-7-2022 The MAC-US model exited the US stock markets end April 2022.





Fig-2.2-10-7-2022The 3-mo Hi-Lo Index Index of the S&P500 is at -4.84% (last week -1.91%), and has  exited the stock markets.




Fig-2.3-10-7-2022The Coppock indicator for the S&P500 generated a sell signal end July 2022 and is dis-invested in stocks.   This indicator is described here.




Fig-2.1-10-7-2022 The MAC-AU model generated a buy signal end August 2022,  and is invested the Australian stock market.

This model and its application is described in MAC-Australia: A Moving Average Crossover System for Superannuation Asset Allocations.




Fig-3.1a-10-7-2022 BCIg does not signal a recession.




Fig-3.1c-10-7-2022The growth of the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Indicator after the August 18 update signals a recession.




Fig-3.2-10-7-2022The Forward Rate Ratio between the 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields (FRR2-10) has inverted begin August 2022 and is signalling a recession — the average lead time of this signal is 14 months.

A description of this indicator can be found here.



Fig-3.3-10-7-2022The iM-Low Frequency Timer switched into stocks on 6/15/2020.

A description of this indicator can be found here.

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