Unemployment
The 11/6/2020 employment report claims 6.9% UER (last month 7.9%) and a total labor force 160,867,000 for mid-September 2020. However, the 11/51/2020 unemployment insurance report shows 21,508,663 persons claiming UI benefits week ending October 170. Thus 21.51/160.87 = 14.1% (last month 16.6%) UER calculated from the unemployment insurance claims for exactly the same period.
CAPE-Cycle-ID
Fig 9a depicts the CAPE-Cycle-ID and the year-on-year rate-of-change of the Shiller CAPE; the level switched from 0 to +2 end of June 2020. This indicator is described here.
To avoid the bear market, exit stocks when the spread between the 5-month and 25-month moving averages of S&P-real becomes negative and simultaneously the CAPE-Cycle-ID score is 0 or -2. (read more)
Estimated Forward 10-Year Returns
The estimated forward 10‐year annualized real return decreased to 5.8% (previous 6.3) with a 95% confidence interval : 4,4% to 7.2% (previous 5.0% to 7.0%).
iM-GT Timer
The iM-GT Timer, based on Google Search Trends volume indicator is invested the stock market since 7/1/2020. This indicator is described here.
Trade Weighted USD
Will be updated later, the weekly FRED data series we used was discontinued and replacement series is daily and runs from 2015. We need to adapt our software and graphics first.
TIAA Real Estate Account
The 1-year rolling return for the end of last month is -0.56%, down from last month’s -0.24%. The model is in cash since begin October 2020.
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