iM Update -August 30, 2019

Market Signals Summary:

The MAC-US model, iM-Low Frequency Timer, and the S&P500 Coppock are invested in the markets, however the “3-mo Hi-Lo Index of the S&P500” is out of the market. The MAC-AU is also invested in the markets. The recession indicators COMP and iM-BCIg do not signal a recession. The bond market model avoids high beta (long) bonds, and the yield curve has flattened significantly generating a buy FLAT signal. The gold Coppock remains invested in gold, however the silver model is in cash. The iM-Gold Timer is in cash.

The monthly iM-GT-Timer, which is based on Google trends, is invested in the markets since July 1, 2019.

 

Stock-markets:

Fig-2.-8-30-2019The MAC-US model switched into the markets on 2/26/2019. The sell-spread (red line) is below last week’s value needs to move below zero to generate a sell signal.

 

 

 

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Fig-2.1-8-30-2019The MAC-AU model is invested in the markets after signaling a a buy on February 7, 2019. The sell-spread (red line) below last week’s value needs to move below zero to generate a sell signal.

This model and its application is described in MAC-Australia: A Moving Average Crossover System for Superannuation Asset Allocations.

 

Recession:

Fig-3.-8-30-2019Figure 3 shows the COMP below last week’s upward revised level. No recession is indicated. COMP can be used for stock market exit timing as discussed in this article The Use of Recession Indicators in Stock Market Timing.

 

Fig-3.1-8-30-2019Figure 3.1 shows the recession indicator iM-BCIg below last week’s level. An imminent recession is not signaled .

Please also refer to the BCI page

 

 

Fig-3.2-8-30-2019The Forward Rate Ratio between the 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields (FRR2-10) is below last week’s level and is not signaling a recession.

A description of this indicator can be found here.

 

Fig-3.3-8-30-2019The iM-Low Frequency Timer is back in the markets since 1/22/2019.

A description of this indicator can be found here.

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