Market Signals Summary:
The MAC-US model is invested. Also, both the “3-mo Hi-Lo Index of the S&P500” and the “VMNFX vs. SPY Timer” are invested in the markets. The monthly update S&P500 Coppock indicator entered the markets in May. The MAC-AU is also invested. The recession indicators COMP and iM-BCIg do not signal a recession. The bond market model avoids high beta (long) bonds, the trend of the yield spread is indeterminate. The gold model is invested and the silver model exited the market on June 24.
The MAC-US model generated a buy-signal 4/5/2016 and thus is invested in the stock-markets. The sell-spread (red graph) is up from last week’s level and has to fall below zero to signal a sell.
The 3-mo Hi-Lo Index of the S&P500 is near last week’s level and at 9.96 above the sell trigger of 5.0, and invested in the market.
The VMNFX vs. SPY Timer signaled an entry into the stock markets on 3/28/2016. For this model to exit the markets the indicator has to rise above the 2% trigger line, the indicator is below last weeks level.
This model and its application is described in MAC-Australia: A Moving Average Crossover System for Superannuation Asset Allocations.
Recession:Figure 3 shows the COMP near last week’s downward revised level. No recession is indicated. COMP can be used for stock market exit timing as discussed in this article The Use of Recession Indicators in Stock Market Timing.
Please also refer to the BCI page
A description of this indicator can be found here.