Market Signals Summary:
The MAC-US model is out of the market. Also, the 3-mo Hi-Lo Index of the S&P500 is out of the markets. The MAC-AU remains out of the markets. The recession indicators COMP and iM-BCIg do not signal a recession. The bond market model avoids high beta (long) bonds, the trend of the yield spread is declining. The gold model is in cash and the silver model is invested..
Last week the MAC-US model generated a sell-signal early January and is not invested in the stock-markets. The buy-spread continues to decline and is below last week’s level. The next buy signal will emerge once the buy-spread (green graph) moves above the zero line.
The 3-mo Hi-Lo Index of the S&P500 signaled an exit from the stock markets on 12/17/2015 as the 40-day moving average (MA40) moved below the 5% threshold. The MA40 continues to decline.
The MAC-AU model generated a sell signal end of August and thus in cash. The buy-spread is near last week’s level. The next buy signal will emerge once the buy-spread (green graph) moves above the zero line.
This model and its application is described in MAC-Australia: A Moving Average Crossover System for Superannuation Asset Allocations.
Recession:Figure 3 shows the COMP is lower than last week’s downward revised level, and far away from signaling recession. COMP can be used for stock market exit timing as discussed in this article The Use of Recession Indicators in Stock Market Timing.
Please also refer to the BCI page
A description of this indicator can be found here.