Market Signals Summary:
The MAC-US model is invested. Also invested is the “VMNFX vs. SPY Timer”. The “3-mo Hi-Lo Index of the S&P500” generated a sell signal on 9/27/2016 . The monthly updated S&P500 Coppock indicator entered the markets in May. The MAC-AU is also invested. The recession indicators COMP and iM-BCIg do not signal a recession. The bond market model avoids high beta (long) bonds, the yield curve is steepening. Both the gold and silver Coppock models are invested, however the iM-Gold Timer is in cash.
Stock-markets:
The MAC-US model generated a buy-signal 4/5/2016 and thus is invested in the stock-markets. The sell-spread (red graph) is up from last week’s level and has to fall below zero to signal a sell.
The 3-mo Hi-Lo Index of the S&P500 is above last week’s level and at 3.5% (last week 0.82%) and is not invested the stock markets since 9/27/2016. This indicator may rise above 5% threshold within a week or two, to generate a entry signal into the markets.
The VMNFX vs. SPY Timer signaled an entry into the stock markets on 3/28/2016. For this model to exit the markets the indicator has to rise above the 2% trigger line, the indicator is above last week’s level.
The MAC-AU model is invested in the markets after it generated a buy signal on March 21, 2016. The sell-spread is near last week’s level and has to fall below zero to signal a sell.
This model and its application is described in MAC-Australia: A Moving Average Crossover System for Superannuation Asset Allocations.
Recession:

Figure 3.1 shows the recession indicator iM-BCIg which is also above last week’s level. An imminent recession is not signaled .
Please also refer to the BCI page
The Forward Rate Ratio between the 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields (FRR2-10) is near the previous week’s level and far away from signalling a recession.
A description of this indicator can be found here.
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