Market Signals Summary:
Both the IBH and MAC stock market models are invested. The recession indicator COMP is up from last week’s level, and iM-BCIg is lower than last week’s level. MAC-AU is invested in the stock market. The bond market model avoids high beta (long) bonds, the yield spread is rising, both the gold and silver model are invested.
Stock-markets:

The MAC-US model signals an up-market and stays invested. MAC-US Fig 2 shows the spreads of the moving averages. The sell-spread is down from last week’s level. A sell signals is not imminent. The sell spread (red graph) has to move below the zero line for a sell signal.
The MAC-AU model is in the market. The sell-spread is lower than last week’s level. A sell signal will only be generated when the sell-spread (red graph) moves from above to below zero.
This model and its application is described in MAC-Australia: A Moving Average Crossover System for Superannuation Asset Allocations.
Recession:

Figure 3.1 shows the recession indicator iM-BCIg is lower than last week’s level. A recession is not imminent.
Please also refer to the BCI page
The Forward Rate Ratio between the 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields (FRR2-10) is near last week’s level and far away from signalling a recession.
A description of this indicator can be found here.
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