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March 22, 2026

iM-Best Holdings

	Out of sample performance summary of our models for the past 1, 2, 4 and 13 week periods. The active active return indicates how the models over- or underperformed the benchmark ETF SPY. Also the YTD, and the 1-, 3-, 5- and 10-year annualized returns are shown in the second table
	iM-Inflation Attuned Multi-Model Market Timer: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is -1.2%, and for the last 12 months is 14.5%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was -1.9% and 20.3% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of the iM-Inflation Attuned Multi-Model Market Timer gained -1.48% at a time when SPY gained -1.36%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 3/24/2017 would have grown to $151,219,555 which includes $1,073,065 cash and excludes $4,103,439 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Conference Board LEIg Timer: The model’s performance YTD is 14.3%, and for the last 12 months is 7.3%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 20.1% and 9.4% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of the iM-Conference Board LEIg Timer gained -1.19% at a time when SPY gained -1.36%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 4/5/2017 would have grown to $680,635 which includes $32 cash and excludes $769 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-FlipSaver 60:40 | 20:80 – 2017: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 0.2%, and for the last 12 months is 7.7%. Over the same period the benchmark E60B40 performance was -1.0% and 14.5% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of iM-FlipSaver 80:20 | 20:80 gained -1.06% at a time when SPY gained -1.15%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 7/16/2015 would have grown to $179,697 which includes -$11 cash and excludes $5,611 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-FlipSaver 70:30 | 20:80 – 2017: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 0.0%, and for the last 12 months is 7.7%. Over the same period the benchmark E60B40 performance was -1.0% and 14.5% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of iM-FlipSaver 70:30 | 20:80 gained -1.16% at a time when SPY gained -1.15%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 7/15/2015 would have grown to $186,799 which includes -$90 cash and excludes $5,884 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-FlipSaver 80:20 | 20:80 – 2017: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is -0.2%, and for the last 12 months is 7.7%. Over the same period the benchmark E60B40 performance was -1.0% and 14.5% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of iM-FlipSaver 80:20 | 20:80 gained -1.25% at a time when SPY gained -1.15%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 1/2/2017 would have grown to $193,788 which includes -$155 cash and excludes $6,148 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-5HedgeFundSelect: Since inception, on 1/5/2016, the model gained 817.34% while the benchmark SPY gained 287.20% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-5HedgeFundSelect gained -2.94% at a time when SPY gained -1.36%. A starting capital of $25,000 at inception on 1/5/2016 would have grown to $229,336 which includes $15,215 cash and excludes $3,216 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-10LargeHedgeFundSelect: Since inception, on 1/5/2016, the model gained 633.93% while the benchmark SPY gained 287.20% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-10LargeHedgeFundSelect gained -1.96% at a time when SPY gained -1.36%. A starting capital of $25,000 at inception on 1/5/2016 would have grown to $183,482 which includes $210 cash and excludes $1,951 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Top5(QQQ)Select: Since inception, on 1/5/2016, the model gained 1485.73% while the benchmark SPY gained 287.20% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Top5(QQQ)Select gained -4.68% at a time when SPY gained -1.36%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 1/5/2016 would have grown to $1,585,735 which includes -$13,164 cash and excludes $27,015 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Top5(XLB)Select: Since inception, on 1/5/2016, the model gained 276.81% while the benchmark SPY gained 287.20% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Top5(XLB)Select gained 0.15% at a time when SPY gained -1.36%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 1/5/2016 would have grown to $376,807 which includes -$3,348 cash and excludes $17,524 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Top5(XLI)Select: Since inception, on 1/5/2016, the model gained 440.07% while the benchmark SPY gained 287.20% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Top5(XLI)Select gained -2.83% at a time when SPY gained -1.36%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 1/5/2016 would have grown to $540,072 which includes $2,179 cash and excludes $8,921 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Top5(XLK)Select: Since inception, on 1/5/2016, the model gained 668.88% while the benchmark SPY gained 287.20% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Top5(XLK)Select gained -3.35% at a time when SPY gained -1.36%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 1/5/2016 would have grown to $768,881 which includes $5,136 cash and excludes $3,071 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Top5(XLP)Select: Since inception, on 1/5/2016, the model gained 243.98% while the benchmark SPY gained 287.20% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Top5(XLP)Select gained -4.48% at a time when SPY gained -1.36%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 1/5/2016 would have grown to $343,984 which includes $2,580 cash and excludes $3,099 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Top5(XLV)Select: Since inception, on 1/5/2016, the model gained 391.21% while the benchmark SPY gained 287.20% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Top5(XLV)Select gained -4.34% at a time when SPY gained -1.36%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 1/5/2016 would have grown to $491,211 which includes $1,800 cash and excludes $19,968 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Top5(XLU)Select: Since inception, on 1/5/2016, the model gained 246.56% while the benchmark SPY gained 287.20% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Top5(XLU)Select gained 1.50% at a time when SPY gained -1.36%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 1/5/2016 would have grown to $346,565 which includes $1,381 cash and excludes $18,540 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Top5(XLY)Select: Since inception, on 1/5/2016, the model gained 359.60% while the benchmark SPY gained 287.20% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Top5(XLY)Select gained -1.83% at a time when SPY gained -1.36%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 1/5/2016 would have grown to $459,603 which includes $361 cash and excludes $7,844 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Seasonal Super-Sectors (Top5 combo) : Since inception, on 11/17/2020, the model gained 115.13% while the benchmark SPY gained 101.00% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Seasonal Super-Sectors (Top5 combo) gained -2.23% at a time when SPY gained -1.36%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 11/17/2020 would have grown to $215,135 which includes $1,711 cash and excludes $00 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Dividend Growth Portfolio: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 0.5%, and for the last 12 months is 13.9%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was -1.9% and 20.3% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of the iM-Dividend Growth Portfolio gained -3.42% at a time when SPY gained -1.36%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 6/30/2016 would have grown to $535,256 which includes $3,361 cash and excludes $14,626 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Gold Momentum Timer (AU, NEM, SBSW): The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 8.4%, and for the last 12 months is 238.9%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was -1.9% and 20.3% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Gold Momentum Timer (AU, NEM, SBSW) gained -10.23% at a time when SPY gained -1.36%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 6/30/2016 would have grown to $147,514 which includes $200,202 cash and excludes Gain to date spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-ModSum/YieldCurve Timer: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is -0.6%, and for the last 12 months is 15.4%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was -1.9% and 20.3% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of iM-PortSum/YieldCurve Timer gained -1.35% at a time when SPY gained -1.36%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 1/1/2016 would have grown to $380,640 which includes $4,646 cash and excludes $2,335 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Best(SPY-SH).R1: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is -1.9%, and for the last 12 months is -2.2%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was -1.9% and 20.3% respectively.. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 1/2/2009 would have grown to $67,664 which includes $761 cash and excludes $2,818 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Combo3.R1: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 0.5%, and for the last 12 months is -3.9%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was -1.9% and 20.3% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Combo3.R1 gained -0.19% at a time when SPY gained -1.36%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 2/3/2014 would have grown to $196,380 which includes $10,299 cash and excludes $8,526 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Best10(VDIGX)-Trader: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is -10.7%, and for the last 12 months is -3.5%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was -1.9% and 20.3% respectively. Since inception, on 7/1/2014, the model gained 232.79% while the benchmark SPY gained 315.64% and VDIGX gained 44.67% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Best10(VDIGX) gained -2.72% at a time when SPY gained -1.36%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 7/1/2014 would have grown to $332,786 which includes $466 cash and excludes $5,704 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM 6-Stock Capital Strength Portfolio: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 19.7%, and for the last 12 months is 17.6%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was -1.9% and 20.3% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of the iM 6-Stock Capital Strength Portfolio gained 0.13% at a time when SPY gained -1.36%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 10/28/2016 would have grown to $307,508 which includes $2,008 cash and excludes $4,455 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Best12(USMV)-Trader: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 4.4%, and for the last 12 months is 26.2%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was -1.9% and 20.3% respectively. Since inception, on 6/30/2014, the model gained 346.09% while the benchmark SPY gained 315.64% and the ETF USMV gained 217.90% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Best12(USMV)-Trader gained -0.70% at a time when SPY gained -1.36%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 6/30/2014 would have grown to $446,095 which includes $1,998 cash and excludes $8,774 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Min Volatility(USMV) Investor (Tax Efficient): The model’s out of sample performance YTD is -7.5%, and for the last 12 months is 11.0%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was -1.9% and 20.3% respectively. Since inception, on 1/3/2013, the model gained 1001.18% while the benchmark SPY gained 473.75% and the ETF USMV gained 473.75% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Best12(USMV)Q1 gained -4.85% at a time when SPY gained -1.36%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 1/3/2013 would have grown to $1,101,180 which includes $813 cash and excludes $15,356 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Bond Market Trader (High-Yield Bond or 10-yr Treasury Bond): The model’s out of sample performance YTD is -1.1%, and for the last 12 months is 2.4%. Over the same period the benchmark BND performance was 0.3% and 5.2% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of the iM-Bond Market Trader (High-Yield Bond or 10-yr Treasury Bond) gained -1.25% at a time when BND gained -0.83%. A starting capital of $10,000 at inception on 1/3/2000 would have grown to $147,508 which includes $1,119 cash and excludes $2,916 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-ModSum/YieldCurve Timer: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is -0.6%, and for the last 12 months is 15.4%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was -1.9% and 20.3% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of iM-PortSum/YieldCurve Timer gained -1.35% at a time when SPY gained -1.36%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 1/1/2016 would have grown to $380,640 which includes $4,646 cash and excludes $2,335 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Best2 MC-Score ETF System: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 5.5%, and for the last 12 months is 9.9%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was -1.9% and 20.3% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of the iM-Best2 MC-Score ETF System gained -1.09% at a time when SPY gained -1.36%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 6/30/2016 would have grown to $198,518 which includes $83 cash and excludes $5,779 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Best4 MC-Score Vanguard System: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 5.8%, and for the last 12 months is 11.5%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was -1.9% and 20.3% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of the iM-Best4 MC-Score Vanguard System gained -0.47% at a time when SPY gained -1.36%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 6/30/2016 would have grown to $193,620 which includes $4,311 cash and excludes $00 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Composite (SPY-IEF) Timer: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is -0.7%, and for the last 12 months is 5.1%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was -1.9% and 20.3% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of the iM-Composite (SPY-IEF) Timer gained -1.36% at a time when SPY gained -1.36%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 6/30/2016 would have grown to $215,121 which includes $362 cash and excludes $8,651 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Composite(Gold-Stocks-Bond) Timer: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 16.2%, and for the last 12 months is 67.4%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was -1.9% and 20.3% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of the iM-Composite(Gold-Stocks-Bond) Timer gained -2.55% at a time when SPY gained -1.36%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 6/30/2016 would have grown to $469,194 which includes $36 cash and excludes $9,190 spent on fees and slippage.

 

iM-Business Cycle Index

   The BCI is not signalling a recession

 

 

 

Market Signals Summary:

  The  iM-Google Trend, the MAC-US,  the 3-Month Hi-Lo Index Index, S&P 500 Coppock Indicator,  CAPE-Cycle-ID are invested in the stock markets. The BCIg does not signal a recession as does the growth of the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Indicator.  The Forward Rate Ratio between the 2 and 10 is no longer inverted and the curve is steepening. The iM-Gold Timer is invested in gold. The iM-Gold Coppock  and the iM-Silver Coppock are in cash.

 

Stock-markets:

The MAC-US model is invested since mid June 2025,

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The 3-mo Hi-Lo Index Index of the S&P500 is at 9.59%  (last week 9.47%) and is invested in the markets..

 

 

 

The Coppock indicator for the S&P500 invested the the US stock markets mid August 2024.   This indicator is described here.

 

 

 

The MAC-AU model is dis-invested from the Australian stock market sine end April 2025.

This model and its application is described in MAC-Australia: A Moving Average Crossover System for Superannuation Asset Allocations.

 

Recession:

 

   BCIg is not signaling a recession.

 

 

 

The growth of the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Indicator does not signal a recession, yet

 

 

 

The Forward Rate Ratio between the 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields (FRR2-10) is no longer inverted and the curve is steepening.

A description of this indicator can be found here.

 

 

The iM-Low Frequency Timer switched to bonds on 9/26/2022.

A description of this indicator can be found here.

Bond-market:

The BVR-model  favors high beta bonds (long-bonds)  and  intermediate duration bonds when the BVR rises. The Bond Value Ratio as shown in Fig 4  is above last week’s value, and according to the model, only when BVR turns upward after having been lower than the lower offset-line should one consider long bonds again.

The Yield Curve:

The yield curve model indicates the trend of the 10-year and 2-year Treasuries yield spread. Figure 5 charts (i10 – i2), the yield curve is near last week’s level. This model confirms the direction of the BVR.

 

Gold:

The modified Coppock Gold indicator, shown in Fig 6,  generated a sell signal end February and is dis-invested in gold.

This indicator is described in Is it Time to Buy Gold Again? – Wait for the buy signal ……. 

 

 

The iM GOLD-TIMER Rev-1   This model generated a new a buy signal mid August 2021 after being in cash for two weeks and thus invested in gold.

 

 

 

Silver:

The modified Coppock Silver indicator shown in Fig 7.  iM-coppock model generated a sell signal end mid February 2026 and is dis-invested in Silver.

This indicator is described in Silver – Better Than Gold: A Modified Coppock Indicator for Silver.

 iM-Best Systems Performance (R2G and others)

Performance comparison of the iM-Best  models hosted on P123 and on iMarketSignals.

 

 

iM-FlipSavers

Performance graphs for iM-FlipSavers

 

 

 

iM-SuperTimer

Performance graphs for iM-3mo-SuperTimer(SPY-IEF)

 

 

 

Performance graphs for iM-1mo-SuperTimer(SPY-IEF)

 

 

 

Performance graphs for iM-1wk-SuperTimer(SPY-IEF)

 

 

 

Unemployment

The 3/6/2025 BLS Employment Situation Report reports that the February 2026 unemployment rate increased by 0.1% to  4.4%.

Our UER model does  signal a recession with a recession probability of  30% (see graph).

 

 

CAPE-Cycle-ID

Fig 9a depicts the CAPE-Cycle-ID and the year-on-year rate-of-change of the Shiller CAPE;  the level switched from -2 to 0 end of June 2023 generating a buy  signal. This indicator now invested in the markets. This indicator is described here.

To avoid the bear market, exit stocks when the spread between the 5-month and 25-month moving averages of S&P-real becomes negative and simultaneously the CAPE-Cycle-ID score is 0 or -2. (read more)

 

Estimated Forward 10-Year Returns

The estimated forward 10‐year annualized real return is 4.5% (previous month 4.4%) with a 95% confidence interval 3.0% to 5.9%  (2.9% to 5.9%). Also refer to the  Realized Forward 10-Year Returns vs. Inflation Rate We may be in a rising inflation period with a falling CAPE-MA35 ratio similar to 1964-1973. This implies very low or negative 10 year forward annualized real returns, much lower than the returns indicated by regression analysis shown in the Estimated Forward 10-Year Returns.

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iM-GT Timer

The iM-GT Timer, based on Google Search Trends volume indicator is not invested in the stock markets since beginning November 2025. This indicator is described here.

 

 

Trade Weighted USD

Will be updated later, the weekly FRED data series we used was discontinued and replacement series is daily and runs from 2015. We need to adapt our software and graphics first.

 

 

 

TIAA Real Estate Account