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	Out of sample performance summary of our models for the past 1, 2, 4 and 13 week periods. The active active return indicates how the models over- or underperformed the benchmark ETF SPY. Also the YTD, and the 1-, 3-, 5- and 10-year annualized returns are shown in the second table
	iM-Inflation Attuned Multi-Model Market Timer: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 2.4%, and for the last 12 months is 26.8%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 1.9% and 21.2% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of the iM-Inflation Attuned Multi-Model Market Timer gained 1.32% at a time when SPY gained 1.08%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 3/24/2017 would have grown to $156,733,096 which includes $294,502 cash and excludes $3,953,990 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Conference Board LEIg Timer: The model’s performance YTD is 14.3%, and for the last 12 months is 7.3%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 20.1% and 9.4% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of the iM-Conference Board LEIg Timer gained 1.10% at a time when SPY gained 1.08%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 4/5/2017 would have grown to $686,039 which includes $25,403 cash and excludes $763 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-FlipSaver 60:40 | 20:80 – 2017: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 0.7%, and for the last 12 months is 6.1%. Over the same period the benchmark E60B40 performance was 1.2% and 16.4% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of iM-FlipSaver 80:20 | 20:80 gained 0.38% at a time when SPY gained 0.67%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 7/16/2015 would have grown to $180,677 which includes $2,320 cash and excludes $5,249 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-FlipSaver 70:30 | 20:80 – 2017: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 0.7%, and for the last 12 months is 5.6%. Over the same period the benchmark E60B40 performance was 1.2% and 16.4% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of iM-FlipSaver 70:30 | 20:80 gained 0.38% at a time when SPY gained 0.67%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 7/15/2015 would have grown to $188,185 which includes $2,459 cash and excludes $5,507 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-FlipSaver 80:20 | 20:80 – 2017: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 0.7%, and for the last 12 months is 5.0%. Over the same period the benchmark E60B40 performance was 1.2% and 16.4% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of iM-FlipSaver 80:20 | 20:80 gained 0.38% at a time when SPY gained 0.67%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 1/2/2017 would have grown to $195,606 which includes $2,565 cash and excludes $5,756 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-5HedgeFundSelect: Since inception, on 1/5/2016, the model gained 947.44% while the benchmark SPY gained 302.32% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-5HedgeFundSelect gained 0.37% at a time when SPY gained 1.08%. A starting capital of $25,000 at inception on 1/5/2016 would have grown to $257,063 which includes $6,972 cash and excludes $2,979 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-10LargeHedgeFundSelect: Since inception, on 1/5/2016, the model gained 671.82% while the benchmark SPY gained 302.32% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-10LargeHedgeFundSelect gained -0.68% at a time when SPY gained 1.08%. A starting capital of $25,000 at inception on 1/5/2016 would have grown to $192,955 which includes $77 cash and excludes $1,941 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Top5(QQQ)Select: Since inception, on 1/5/2016, the model gained 1762.36% while the benchmark SPY gained 302.32% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Top5(QQQ)Select gained 6.65% at a time when SPY gained 1.08%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 1/5/2016 would have grown to $1,862,362 which includes $1,298 cash and excludes $21,950 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Top5(XLB)Select: Since inception, on 1/5/2016, the model gained 255.70% while the benchmark SPY gained 302.32% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Top5(XLB)Select gained 4.21% at a time when SPY gained 1.08%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 1/5/2016 would have grown to $355,699 which includes $753 cash and excludes $17,322 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Top5(XLI)Select: Since inception, on 1/5/2016, the model gained 450.68% while the benchmark SPY gained 302.32% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Top5(XLI)Select gained 4.09% at a time when SPY gained 1.08%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 1/5/2016 would have grown to $550,684 which includes $3,824 cash and excludes $8,409 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Top5(XLK)Select: Since inception, on 1/5/2016, the model gained 784.14% while the benchmark SPY gained 302.32% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Top5(XLK)Select gained -0.74% at a time when SPY gained 1.08%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 1/5/2016 would have grown to $884,142 which includes $3,017 cash and excludes $3,071 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Top5(XLP)Select: Since inception, on 1/5/2016, the model gained 278.60% while the benchmark SPY gained 302.32% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Top5(XLP)Select gained 7.61% at a time when SPY gained 1.08%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 1/5/2016 would have grown to $378,605 which includes $879 cash and excludes $3,099 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Top5(XLV)Select: Since inception, on 1/5/2016, the model gained 431.63% while the benchmark SPY gained 302.32% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Top5(XLV)Select gained 1.91% at a time when SPY gained 1.08%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 1/5/2016 would have grown to $531,632 which includes $1,223 cash and excludes $19,935 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Top5(XLU)Select: Since inception, on 1/5/2016, the model gained 201.40% while the benchmark SPY gained 302.32% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Top5(XLU)Select gained 0.51% at a time when SPY gained 1.08%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 1/5/2016 would have grown to $301,400 which includes -$4,143 cash and excludes $18,234 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Top5(XLY)Select: Since inception, on 1/5/2016, the model gained 379.32% while the benchmark SPY gained 302.32% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Top5(XLY)Select gained 5.08% at a time when SPY gained 1.08%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 1/5/2016 would have grown to $479,317 which includes $1,561 cash and excludes $7,623 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Seasonal Super-Sectors (Top5 combo) : Since inception, on 11/17/2020, the model gained 119.32% while the benchmark SPY gained 108.85% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Seasonal Super-Sectors (Top5 combo) gained 3.78% at a time when SPY gained 1.08%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 11/17/2020 would have grown to $219,316 which includes $3,015 cash and excludes $00 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Dividend Growth Portfolio: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 5.9%, and for the last 12 months is 16.0%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 1.9% and 21.2% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of the iM-Dividend Growth Portfolio gained 3.81% at a time when SPY gained 1.08%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 6/30/2016 would have grown to $564,316 which includes $1,331 cash and excludes $14,456 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Gold Momentum Timer (AU, NEM, SBSW): The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 18.2%, and for the last 12 months is 368.0%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 1.9% and 21.2% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Gold Momentum Timer (AU, NEM, SBSW) gained 11.23% at a time when SPY gained 1.08%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 6/30/2016 would have grown to $01 which includes $171,911 cash and excludes Gain to date spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-ModSum/YieldCurve Timer: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 0.0%, and for the last 12 months is 20.8%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 1.9% and 21.2% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of iM-PortSum/YieldCurve Timer gained -0.19% at a time when SPY gained 1.08%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 1/1/2016 would have grown to $383,048 which includes $4,580 cash and excludes $2,213 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Best(SPY-SH).R1: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 1.9%, and for the last 12 months is -1.5%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 1.9% and 21.2% respectively.. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 1/2/2009 would have grown to $70,277 which includes $761 cash and excludes $2,818 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Combo3.R1: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 0.1%, and for the last 12 months is -6.1%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 1.9% and 21.2% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Combo3.R1 gained -0.02% at a time when SPY gained 1.08%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 2/3/2014 would have grown to $195,538 which includes $7,798 cash and excludes $8,524 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Best10(VDIGX)-Trader: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 0.6%, and for the last 12 months is 10.6%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 1.9% and 21.2% respectively. Since inception, on 7/1/2014, the model gained 274.57% while the benchmark SPY gained 331.87% and VDIGX gained 51.54% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Best10(VDIGX) gained 1.36% at a time when SPY gained 1.08%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 7/1/2014 would have grown to $374,566 which includes -$528 cash and excludes $5,657 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM 6-Stock Capital Strength Portfolio: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 4.2%, and for the last 12 months is -1.6%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 1.9% and 21.2% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of the iM 6-Stock Capital Strength Portfolio gained 3.55% at a time when SPY gained 1.08%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 10/28/2016 would have grown to $267,682 which includes $3,938 cash and excludes $4,323 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Best12(USMV)-Trader: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 2.2%, and for the last 12 months is 29.0%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 1.9% and 21.2% respectively. Since inception, on 6/30/2014, the model gained 336.57% while the benchmark SPY gained 331.87% and the ETF USMV gained 215.31% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Best12(USMV)-Trader gained 2.27% at a time when SPY gained 1.08%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 6/30/2014 would have grown to $436,569 which includes $2,792 cash and excludes $8,744 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Min Volatility(USMV) Investor (Tax Efficient): The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 3.0%, and for the last 12 months is 26.2%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 1.9% and 21.2% respectively. Since inception, on 1/3/2013, the model gained 1125.48% while the benchmark SPY gained 496.16% and the ETF USMV gained 496.16% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Best12(USMV)Q1 gained 1.74% at a time when SPY gained 1.08%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 1/3/2013 would have grown to $1,225,478 which includes -$1,252 cash and excludes $15,146 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Bond Market Trader (High-Yield Bond or 10-yr Treasury Bond): The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 0.0%, and for the last 12 months is 7.7%. Over the same period the benchmark BND performance was 0.2% and 8.3% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of the iM-Bond Market Trader (High-Yield Bond or 10-yr Treasury Bond) gained -0.20% at a time when BND gained 0.06%. A starting capital of $10,000 at inception on 1/3/2000 would have grown to $149,130 which includes $1,493 cash and excludes $2,855 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-ModSum/YieldCurve Timer: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 0.0%, and for the last 12 months is 20.8%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 1.9% and 21.2% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of iM-PortSum/YieldCurve Timer gained -0.19% at a time when SPY gained 1.08%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 1/1/2016 would have grown to $383,048 which includes $4,580 cash and excludes $2,213 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Best2 MC-Score ETF System: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 2.0%, and for the last 12 months is 11.0%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 1.9% and 21.2% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of the iM-Best2 MC-Score ETF System gained 2.27% at a time when SPY gained 1.08%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 6/30/2016 would have grown to $191,842 which includes $1,225 cash and excludes $5,761 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Best4 MC-Score Vanguard System: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 1.1%, and for the last 12 months is 9.4%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 1.9% and 21.2% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of the iM-Best4 MC-Score Vanguard System gained 1.06% at a time when SPY gained 1.08%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 6/30/2016 would have grown to $184,945 which includes $3,863 cash and excludes $00 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Composite (SPY-IEF) Timer: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 0.0%, and for the last 12 months is 1.6%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 1.9% and 21.2% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of the iM-Composite (SPY-IEF) Timer gained -0.19% at a time when SPY gained 1.08%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 6/30/2016 would have grown to $216,595 which includes $2,594 cash and excludes $8,216 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Composite(Gold-Stocks-Bond) Timer: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 6.5%, and for the last 12 months is 70.2%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 1.9% and 21.2% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of the iM-Composite(Gold-Stocks-Bond) Timer gained 3.31% at a time when SPY gained 1.08%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 6/30/2016 would have grown to $430,235 which includes $36 cash and excludes $9,190 spent on fees and slippage.

Bond-market:

The Yield Curve:

 

 

 

Silver:

Stock-markets:

The MAC-US model is invested since mid June 2025,

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The MAC-AU model is dis-invested from the Australian stock market sine end April 2025.

This model and its application is described in MAC-Australia: A Moving Average Crossover System for Superannuation Asset Allocations.

 

Recession:

 

   BCIg is not signaling a recession. (due to government shutdown, still lacking data)

 

 

 

The growth of the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Indicator does not signal a recession.(due to government shutdown, still lacking data)

 

 

 

The Forward Rate Ratio between the 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields (FRR2-10) is no longer inverted and the curve is steepening.

A description of this indicator can be found here.

 

 

The iM-Low Frequency Timer switched to bonds on 9/26/2022.

A description of this indicator can be found here.

	Out of sample performance summary of our models for the past 1, 2, 4 and 13 week periods. The active active return indicates how the models over- or underperformed the benchmark ETF SPY. Also the YTD, and the 1-, 3-, 5- and 10-year annualized returns are shown in the second table
	iM-Inflation Attuned Multi-Model Market Timer: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 20.5%, and for the last 12 months is 18.9%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 15.1% and 13.7% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of the iM-Inflation Attuned Multi-Model Market Timer gained -0.07% at a time when SPY gained 0.46%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 3/24/2017 would have grown to $149,065,110 which includes -$74,789 cash and excludes $3,953,990 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Conference Board LEIg Timer: The model’s performance YTD is 14.3%, and for the last 12 months is 7.3%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 20.1% and 9.4% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of the iM-Conference Board LEIg Timer gained 0.28% at a time when SPY gained 0.46%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 4/5/2017 would have grown to $651,633 which includes $21,982 cash and excludes $763 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-FlipSaver 60:40 | 20:80 – 2017: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 4.6%, and for the last 12 months is 3.0%. Over the same period the benchmark E60B40 performance was 12.4% and 11.4% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of iM-FlipSaver 80:20 | 20:80 gained 0.54% at a time when SPY gained 0.53%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 7/16/2015 would have grown to $179,165 which includes $1,001 cash and excludes $5,249 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-FlipSaver 70:30 | 20:80 – 2017: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 3.9%, and for the last 12 months is 2.3%. Over the same period the benchmark E60B40 performance was 12.4% and 11.4% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of iM-FlipSaver 70:30 | 20:80 gained 0.54% at a time when SPY gained 0.53%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 7/15/2015 would have grown to $186,610 which includes $1,086 cash and excludes $5,507 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-FlipSaver 80:20 | 20:80 – 2017: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 3.3%, and for the last 12 months is 1.5%. Over the same period the benchmark E60B40 performance was 12.4% and 11.4% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of iM-FlipSaver 80:20 | 20:80 gained 0.54% at a time when SPY gained 0.53%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 1/2/2017 would have grown to $193,968 which includes $1,138 cash and excludes $5,756 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-5HedgeFundSelect: Since inception, on 1/5/2016, the model gained 891.19% while the benchmark SPY gained 285.89% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-5HedgeFundSelect gained 1.07% at a time when SPY gained 0.46%. A starting capital of $25,000 at inception on 1/5/2016 would have grown to $245,301 which includes $6,099 cash and excludes $2,969 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-10LargeHedgeFundSelect: Since inception, on 1/5/2016, the model gained 667.88% while the benchmark SPY gained 285.89% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-10LargeHedgeFundSelect gained -0.38% at a time when SPY gained 0.46%. A starting capital of $25,000 at inception on 1/5/2016 would have grown to $191,970 which includes -$642 cash and excludes $1,928 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Top5(QQQ)Select: Since inception, on 1/5/2016, the model gained 1416.70% while the benchmark SPY gained 285.89% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Top5(QQQ)Select gained 0.56% at a time when SPY gained 0.46%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 1/5/2016 would have grown to $1,516,696 which includes $23,666 cash and excludes $21,634 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Top5(XLB)Select: Since inception, on 1/5/2016, the model gained 208.50% while the benchmark SPY gained 285.89% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Top5(XLB)Select gained -1.03% at a time when SPY gained 0.46%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 1/5/2016 would have grown to $308,503 which includes $37,998 cash and excludes $17,004 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Top5(XLI)Select: Since inception, on 1/5/2016, the model gained 400.24% while the benchmark SPY gained 285.89% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Top5(XLI)Select gained 2.43% at a time when SPY gained 0.46%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 1/5/2016 would have grown to $500,243 which includes $1,741 cash and excludes $8,409 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Top5(XLK)Select: Since inception, on 1/5/2016, the model gained 770.72% while the benchmark SPY gained 285.89% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Top5(XLK)Select gained 0.99% at a time when SPY gained 0.46%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 1/5/2016 would have grown to $870,724 which includes $4,971 cash and excludes $3,016 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Top5(XLP)Select: Since inception, on 1/5/2016, the model gained 222.90% while the benchmark SPY gained 285.89% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Top5(XLP)Select gained -5.39% at a time when SPY gained 0.46%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 1/5/2016 would have grown to $322,896 which includes $2,141 cash and excludes $3,015 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Top5(XLV)Select: Since inception, on 1/5/2016, the model gained 401.76% while the benchmark SPY gained 285.89% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Top5(XLV)Select gained 2.77% at a time when SPY gained 0.46%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 1/5/2016 would have grown to $501,757 which includes $7,609 cash and excludes $19,890 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Top5(XLU)Select: Since inception, on 1/5/2016, the model gained 204.71% while the benchmark SPY gained 285.89% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Top5(XLU)Select gained 0.30% at a time when SPY gained 0.46%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 1/5/2016 would have grown to $304,706 which includes -$970 cash and excludes $17,964 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Top5(XLY)Select: Since inception, on 1/5/2016, the model gained 336.54% while the benchmark SPY gained 285.89% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Top5(XLY)Select gained 1.10% at a time when SPY gained 0.46%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 1/5/2016 would have grown to $436,539 which includes $2,407 cash and excludes $7,590 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Seasonal Super-Sectors (Top5 combo) : Since inception, on 11/17/2020, the model gained 98.98% while the benchmark SPY gained 100.31% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Seasonal Super-Sectors (Top5 combo) gained 1.32% at a time when SPY gained 0.46%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 11/17/2020 would have grown to $198,982 which includes $9,016 cash and excludes $00 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Dividend Growth Portfolio: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 6.3%, and for the last 12 months is 2.6%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 15.1% and 13.7% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of the iM-Dividend Growth Portfolio gained 0.79% at a time when SPY gained 0.46%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 6/30/2016 would have grown to $514,442 which includes $3,930 cash and excludes $14,300 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Gold Momentum Timer (AU, NEM, SBSW): The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 277.9%, and for the last 12 months is 236.1%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 15.1% and 13.7% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Gold Momentum Timer (AU, NEM, SBSW) gained 9.82% at a time when SPY gained 0.46%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 6/30/2016 would have grown to $01 which includes $171,911 cash and excludes Gain to date spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-ModSum/YieldCurve Timer: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 20.1%, and for the last 12 months is 20.2%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 15.1% and 13.7% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of iM-PortSum/YieldCurve Timer gained 0.81% at a time when SPY gained 0.46%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 1/1/2016 would have grown to $385,248 which includes $2,215 cash and excludes $2,213 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Best(SPY-SH).R1: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is -6.4%, and for the last 12 months is -7.5%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 15.1% and 13.7% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of Best(SPY-SH) gained 0.46% at a time when SPY gained 0.46%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 1/2/2009 would have grown to $67,435 which includes $562 cash and excludes $2,818 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Combo3.R1: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is -7.4%, and for the last 12 months is -8.1%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 15.1% and 13.7% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Combo3.R1 gained 0.26% at a time when SPY gained 0.46%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 2/3/2014 would have grown to $195,258 which includes $6,371 cash and excludes $8,520 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Best10(VDIGX)-Trader: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 4.2%, and for the last 12 months is 1.0%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 15.1% and 13.7% respectively. Since inception, on 7/1/2014, the model gained 262.22% while the benchmark SPY gained 314.23% and VDIGX gained 68.44% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Best10(VDIGX) gained 0.70% at a time when SPY gained 0.46%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 7/1/2014 would have grown to $362,219 which includes $1,319 cash and excludes $5,493 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM 6-Stock Capital Strength Portfolio: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is -6.1%, and for the last 12 months is -13.6%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 15.1% and 13.7% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of the iM 6-Stock Capital Strength Portfolio gained 1.37% at a time when SPY gained 0.46%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 10/28/2016 would have grown to $251,474 which includes $2,230 cash and excludes $4,323 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Best12(USMV)-Trader: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 20.0%, and for the last 12 months is 16.2%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 15.1% and 13.7% respectively. Since inception, on 6/30/2014, the model gained 310.40% while the benchmark SPY gained 314.23% and the ETF USMV gained 209.88% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Best12(USMV)-Trader gained -1.40% at a time when SPY gained 0.46%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 6/30/2014 would have grown to $410,398 which includes $408 cash and excludes $8,744 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Min Volatility(USMV) Investor (Tax Efficient): The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 15.5%, and for the last 12 months is 6.2%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 15.1% and 13.7% respectively. Since inception, on 1/3/2013, the model gained 1016.32% while the benchmark SPY gained 471.80% and the ETF USMV gained 471.80% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Best12(USMV)Q1 gained -0.52% at a time when SPY gained 0.46%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 1/3/2013 would have grown to $1,116,322 which includes $423 cash and excludes $14,948 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Bond Market Trader (High-Yield Bond or 10-yr Treasury Bond): The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 7.0%, and for the last 12 months is 6.4%. Over the same period the benchmark BND performance was 7.2% and 6.9% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of the iM-Bond Market Trader (High-Yield Bond or 10-yr Treasury Bond) gained 0.82% at a time when BND gained 0.61%. A starting capital of $10,000 at inception on 1/3/2000 would have grown to $149,987 which includes $571 cash and excludes $2,855 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-ModSum/YieldCurve Timer: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 20.1%, and for the last 12 months is 20.2%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 15.1% and 13.7% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of iM-PortSum/YieldCurve Timer gained 0.81% at a time when SPY gained 0.46%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 1/1/2016 would have grown to $385,248 which includes $2,215 cash and excludes $2,213 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Best2 MC-Score ETF System: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 5.2%, and for the last 12 months is 1.1%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 15.1% and 13.7% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of the iM-Best2 MC-Score ETF System gained 0.10% at a time when SPY gained 0.46%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 6/30/2016 would have grown to $185,643 which includes $85 cash and excludes $5,761 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Best4 MC-Score Vanguard System: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 7.1%, and for the last 12 months is 1.6%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 15.1% and 13.7% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of the iM-Best4 MC-Score Vanguard System gained 0.29% at a time when SPY gained 0.46%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 6/30/2016 would have grown to $184,043 which includes $2,443 cash and excludes $00 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Composite (SPY-IEF) Timer: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 1.2%, and for the last 12 months is -0.1%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 15.1% and 13.7% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of the iM-Composite (SPY-IEF) Timer gained 0.81% at a time when SPY gained 0.46%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 6/30/2016 would have grown to $217,838 which includes $1,257 cash and excludes $8,216 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Composite(Gold-Stocks-Bond) Timer: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 57.1%, and for the last 12 months is 52.3%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 15.1% and 13.7% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of the iM-Composite(Gold-Stocks-Bond) Timer gained 2.29% at a time when SPY gained 0.46%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 6/30/2016 would have grown to $387,311 which includes $36 cash and excludes $9,190 spent on fees and slippage.

	Out of sample performance summary of our models for the past 1, 2, 4 and 13 week periods. The active active return indicates how the models over- or underperformed the benchmark ETF SPY. Also the YTD, and the 1-, 3-, 5- and 10-year annualized returns are shown in the second table
	iM-Inflation Attuned Multi-Model Market Timer: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 24.9%, and for the last 12 months is 23.5%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 17.3% and 15.3% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of the iM-Inflation Attuned Multi-Model Market Timer gained -0.78% at a time when SPY gained -0.28%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 3/24/2017 would have grown to $154,498,014 which includes -$74,789 cash and excludes $3,953,990 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Conference Board LEIg Timer: The model’s performance YTD is 14.3%, and for the last 12 months is 7.3%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 20.1% and 9.4% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of the iM-Conference Board LEIg Timer gained 0.60% at a time when SPY gained -0.28%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 4/5/2017 would have grown to $655,211 which includes $21,982 cash and excludes $763 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-FlipSaver 60:40 | 20:80 – 2017: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 4.3%, and for the last 12 months is 2.4%. Over the same period the benchmark E60B40 performance was 13.4% and 11.9% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of iM-FlipSaver 80:20 | 20:80 gained 0.15% at a time when SPY gained -0.13%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 7/16/2015 would have grown to $178,757 which includes $1,001 cash and excludes $5,249 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-FlipSaver 70:30 | 20:80 – 2017: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 3.7%, and for the last 12 months is 1.8%. Over the same period the benchmark E60B40 performance was 13.4% and 11.9% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of iM-FlipSaver 70:30 | 20:80 gained 0.15% at a time when SPY gained -0.13%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 7/15/2015 would have grown to $186,185 which includes $1,086 cash and excludes $5,507 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-FlipSaver 80:20 | 20:80 – 2017: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 3.1%, and for the last 12 months is 1.1%. Over the same period the benchmark E60B40 performance was 13.4% and 11.9% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of iM-FlipSaver 80:20 | 20:80 gained 0.15% at a time when SPY gained -0.13%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 1/2/2017 would have grown to $193,527 which includes $1,138 cash and excludes $5,756 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-5HedgeFundSelect: Since inception, on 1/5/2016, the model gained 931.18% while the benchmark SPY gained 293.22% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-5HedgeFundSelect gained 0.43% at a time when SPY gained -0.28%. A starting capital of $25,000 at inception on 1/5/2016 would have grown to $255,299 which includes -$4,521 cash and excludes $2,850 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-10LargeHedgeFundSelect: Since inception, on 1/5/2016, the model gained 701.29% while the benchmark SPY gained 293.22% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-10LargeHedgeFundSelect gained -2.46% at a time when SPY gained -0.28%. A starting capital of $25,000 at inception on 1/5/2016 would have grown to $200,321 which includes $502 cash and excludes $1,889 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Top5(QQQ)Select: Since inception, on 1/5/2016, the model gained 1484.24% while the benchmark SPY gained 293.22% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Top5(QQQ)Select gained -0.97% at a time when SPY gained -0.28%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 1/5/2016 would have grown to $1,584,239 which includes $22,462 cash and excludes $21,634 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Top5(XLB)Select: Since inception, on 1/5/2016, the model gained 220.92% while the benchmark SPY gained 293.22% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Top5(XLB)Select gained 2.78% at a time when SPY gained -0.28%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 1/5/2016 would have grown to $320,920 which includes -$630 cash and excludes $16,875 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Top5(XLI)Select: Since inception, on 1/5/2016, the model gained 400.78% while the benchmark SPY gained 293.22% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Top5(XLI)Select gained 0.68% at a time when SPY gained -0.28%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 1/5/2016 would have grown to $500,777 which includes -$4,422 cash and excludes $8,195 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Top5(XLK)Select: Since inception, on 1/5/2016, the model gained 791.04% while the benchmark SPY gained 293.22% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Top5(XLK)Select gained -1.60% at a time when SPY gained -0.28%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 1/5/2016 would have grown to $891,039 which includes $3,887 cash and excludes $3,016 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Top5(XLP)Select: Since inception, on 1/5/2016, the model gained 250.22% while the benchmark SPY gained 293.22% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Top5(XLP)Select gained -3.12% at a time when SPY gained -0.28%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 1/5/2016 would have grown to $350,222 which includes $1,178 cash and excludes $3,015 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Top5(XLV)Select: Since inception, on 1/5/2016, the model gained 387.60% while the benchmark SPY gained 293.22% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Top5(XLV)Select gained -2.63% at a time when SPY gained -0.28%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 1/5/2016 would have grown to $487,597 which includes $7,380 cash and excludes $19,890 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Top5(XLU)Select: Since inception, on 1/5/2016, the model gained 202.47% while the benchmark SPY gained 293.22% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Top5(XLU)Select gained 1.65% at a time when SPY gained -0.28%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 1/5/2016 would have grown to $302,471 which includes $819 cash and excludes $17,817 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Top5(XLY)Select: Since inception, on 1/5/2016, the model gained 342.55% while the benchmark SPY gained 293.22% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Top5(XLY)Select gained 2.12% at a time when SPY gained -0.28%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 1/5/2016 would have grown to $442,548 which includes $2,140 cash and excludes $7,590 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Seasonal Super-Sectors (Top5 combo) : Since inception, on 11/17/2020, the model gained 100.20% while the benchmark SPY gained 104.12% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Seasonal Super-Sectors (Top5 combo) gained 0.73% at a time when SPY gained -0.28%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 11/17/2020 would have grown to $200,202 which includes $2,244 cash and excludes $00 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Dividend Growth Portfolio: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 8.2%, and for the last 12 months is 4.4%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 17.3% and 15.3% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of the iM-Dividend Growth Portfolio gained -1.38% at a time when SPY gained -0.28%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 6/30/2016 would have grown to $523,515 which includes $2,567 cash and excludes $14,300 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Gold Momentum Timer (AU, NEM, SBSW): The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 255.7%, and for the last 12 months is 197.5%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 17.3% and 15.3% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Gold Momentum Timer (AU, NEM, SBSW) gained 8.70% at a time when SPY gained -0.28%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 6/30/2016 would have grown to $01 which includes $171,911 cash and excludes Gain to date spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-ModSum/YieldCurve Timer: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 19.1%, and for the last 12 months is 18.7%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 17.3% and 15.3% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of iM-PortSum/YieldCurve Timer gained 0.06% at a time when SPY gained -0.28%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 1/1/2016 would have grown to $382,178 which includes $2,215 cash and excludes $2,213 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Best(SPY-SH).R1: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is -4.6%, and for the last 12 months is -6.2%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 17.3% and 15.3% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of Best(SPY-SH) gained -0.28% at a time when SPY gained -0.28%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 1/2/2009 would have grown to $68,706 which includes $562 cash and excludes $2,818 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Combo3.R1: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is -7.7%, and for the last 12 months is -9.1%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 17.3% and 15.3% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Combo3.R1 gained 0.05% at a time when SPY gained -0.28%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 2/3/2014 would have grown to $194,746 which includes $6,371 cash and excludes $8,520 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Best10(VDIGX)-Trader: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 4.3%, and for the last 12 months is 3.1%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 17.3% and 15.3% respectively. Since inception, on 7/1/2014, the model gained 262.41% while the benchmark SPY gained 322.10% and VDIGX gained 66.77% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Best10(VDIGX) gained 0.51% at a time when SPY gained -0.28%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 7/1/2014 would have grown to $362,409 which includes $847 cash and excludes $5,493 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM 6-Stock Capital Strength Portfolio: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is -8.1%, and for the last 12 months is -12.1%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 17.3% and 15.3% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of the iM 6-Stock Capital Strength Portfolio gained -0.51% at a time when SPY gained -0.28%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 10/28/2016 would have grown to $246,116 which includes $698 cash and excludes $4,323 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Best12(USMV)-Trader: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 21.4%, and for the last 12 months is 17.0%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 17.3% and 15.3% respectively. Since inception, on 6/30/2014, the model gained 315.21% while the benchmark SPY gained 322.10% and the ETF USMV gained 209.15% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Best12(USMV)-Trader gained -0.06% at a time when SPY gained -0.28%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 6/30/2014 would have grown to $415,209 which includes $139 cash and excludes $8,744 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Min Volatility(USMV) Investor (Tax Efficient): The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 16.8%, and for the last 12 months is 9.0%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 17.3% and 15.3% respectively. Since inception, on 1/3/2013, the model gained 1028.87% while the benchmark SPY gained 482.67% and the ETF USMV gained 482.67% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Best12(USMV)Q1 gained 1.18% at a time when SPY gained -0.28%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 1/3/2013 would have grown to $1,128,866 which includes $15,300 cash and excludes $14,802 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Bond Market Trader (High-Yield Bond or 10-yr Treasury Bond): The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 6.1%, and for the last 12 months is 4.1%. Over the same period the benchmark BND performance was 6.7% and 5.7% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of the iM-Bond Market Trader (High-Yield Bond or 10-yr Treasury Bond) gained 0.06% at a time when BND gained 0.08%. A starting capital of $10,000 at inception on 1/3/2000 would have grown to $148,790 which includes $571 cash and excludes $2,855 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-ModSum/YieldCurve Timer: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 19.1%, and for the last 12 months is 18.7%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 17.3% and 15.3% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of iM-PortSum/YieldCurve Timer gained 0.06% at a time when SPY gained -0.28%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 1/1/2016 would have grown to $382,178 which includes $2,215 cash and excludes $2,213 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Best2 MC-Score ETF System: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 4.7%, and for the last 12 months is 1.2%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 17.3% and 15.3% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of the iM-Best2 MC-Score ETF System gained 0.84% at a time when SPY gained -0.28%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 6/30/2016 would have grown to $184,738 which includes $57 cash and excludes $5,759 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Best4 MC-Score Vanguard System: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 7.2%, and for the last 12 months is 1.4%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 17.3% and 15.3% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of the iM-Best4 MC-Score Vanguard System gained 0.62% at a time when SPY gained -0.28%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 6/30/2016 would have grown to $184,244 which includes $2,443 cash and excludes $00 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Composite (SPY-IEF) Timer: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 0.4%, and for the last 12 months is -1.3%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 17.3% and 15.3% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of the iM-Composite (SPY-IEF) Timer gained 0.06% at a time when SPY gained -0.28%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 6/30/2016 would have grown to $216,103 which includes $1,257 cash and excludes $8,216 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Composite(Gold-Stocks-Bond) Timer: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 56.4%, and for the last 12 months is 52.7%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 17.3% and 15.3% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of the iM-Composite(Gold-Stocks-Bond) Timer gained 2.58% at a time when SPY gained -0.28%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 6/30/2016 would have grown to $385,464 which includes $36 cash and excludes $9,190 spent on fees and slippage.

Unemployment

The 1/9/2025 BLS Employment Situation Report reports that the December 2025 unemployment rate decreased by 0.1% to  4.4%.

Our UER model does  signal a recession with a recession probability of  40% (see graph).

 

 

CAPE-Cycle-ID

Fig 9a depicts the CAPE-Cycle-ID and the year-on-year rate-of-change of the Shiller CAPE;  the level switched from -2 to 0 end of June 2023 generating a buy  signal. This indicator now invested in the markets. This indicator is described here.

To avoid the bear market, exit stocks when the spread between the 5-month and 25-month moving averages of S&P-real becomes negative and simultaneously the CAPE-Cycle-ID score is 0 or -2. (read more)

 

Estimated Forward 10-Year Returns

The estimated forward 10‐year annualized real return is 4.3% (previous month 4.4%) with a 95% confidence interval 2.8% to 5.8%  (2.9% to 5.9%). Also refer to the  Realized Forward 10-Year Returns vs. Inflation Rate We may be in a rising inflation period with a falling CAPE-MA35 ratio similar to 1964-1973. This implies very low or negative 10 year forward annualized real returns, much lower than the returns indicated by regression analysis shown in the Estimated Forward 10-Year Returns.

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iM-GT Timer

 

 

Trade Weighted USD

 

 

 

TIAA Real Estate Account