Anton Vrba | iMarketSignals

Posted on Apr 3, 2025 by Anton Vrba

Posted on Apr 3, 2025 by Anton Vrba — No Comments ↓

The average of S&P 500 for Mar-2025 was 5,680, (26% up from Jul-2023 average of 4,497 when forward returns for stocks “looked reasonably good” according to this analysis).
The S&P 500 is now 1,760 points higher than the corresponding long-term trend value of 3,920.
For the S&P 500 to reach the corresponding long-trend value would entail a 31% decline from the March average value, indicating that the S&P 500 is considerably overvalued.
The Shiller CAPE-ratio is at 34.9, 30% higher than its 35-year moving average (MA35), currently at 26.9, forecasting a 10-year annualized real return of about 5.5% derived from the CAPE-MA35 methodology.
The long-term trend indicates a forward 10-year annualized real return of only 2.7%

Posted in 2020, blogs, featured