iM Update -April 3, 2020

Market Signals Summary:

The 3-mo Hi-Lo Index is out of the market since 3/5/2020 and the MAC US and the MAC AU are out of the markets since 3/26/2020.  The bond market model avoids high beta (long) bonds, and the yield curve is steepening and signaled a buy STPP. The Gold Coppock remains in gold but the iM-Gold Timer is in cash, However the Silver Coppock model is invested in silver.

The BCI, the iM-Comp and the iM-Unemployment models all signal a recession

The iM-GT Timer, based on Google Search Trends volume switched out of the markets on 3/5/2020.

Stock-markets:

The MAC-US model switched out of the markets on 3/26/2020. The buy-spread (green line) is below last week’s value.

 

 

 

The 3-mo Hi-Lo Index Index of the S&P500 at -18.02% is below last week’s -17.07%, and is out of the stock market since 3/5/2020.

 

 

 

The Coppock indicator for the S&P500 entered  the market on 5/9/2019 and is invested.   This indicator is described here.

 

 

 

The MAC-AU model switch out of the markets on 3/27/2020. The buy-spread (green line) is below last week’s value.

This model and its application is described in MAC-Australia: A Moving Average Crossover System for Superannuation Asset Allocations.

 

Recession:

 

This iM-LLI reflects mainly data for February 2020, except for the BCI.

 

 

 

 

 

Although we discontinied COMP, we updated it weekly and with the input data of 3/27/2020 signals a recession. This model uses following three components: (i) ECRI’s WLIW, (ii) Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions Index (ADS), and (iii) The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S   Mainly the ADS drove the COMP downwards.

 

Figure 3.1 shows the recession indicator iM-BCIg below last week’s level.  However, BCIp has signalled a recession.

Please also refer to the BCI page

 

 

The Forward Rate Ratio between the 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields (FRR2-10) is above last week’s level.

A description of this indicator can be found here.

 

The iM-Low Frequency Timer is back in the markets since 1/22/2019.

A description of this indicator can be found here.