iM Update – March 15, 2019

Market Signals Summary:

The MAC-US model,  iM-Low Frequency Timer   and the  “3-mo Hi-Lo Index of the S&P500” are invested in the markets. However the monthly updated S&P500 Coppock is out of the markets. The MAC-AU  is invested in the markets. The recession indicators COMP and iM-BCIg do not signal a recession.  The bond market model avoids high beta (long) bonds, and the yield curve is indeterminate. The gold Coppock model is invested in gold, however the silver model is in cash. The iM-Gold Timer is in cash.

The monthly iM-GT-Timer, which is based on Google trends, has switched to cash on November 1, 2018.

 

Stock-markets:

The MAC-US model switched into the markets on 2/26/2019. The sell-spread (red line) now needs to move above zero before a sell signal can be generated.

 

 

 

The 3-mo Hi-Lo Index of the S&P500 is above last week’s level at 12.17% (last week 10.73%), and is in the market since 2/27/2019.

 

 

 

The MAC-AU model is invested in the markets after signaling a a buy on February 7, 2019. The sell-spread (red line) now needs to move above zero before a sell signal can be generated.

This model and its application is described in MAC-Australia: A Moving Average Crossover System for Superannuation Asset Allocations.

 

Recession:

Figure 3 shows the COMP above last week’s levels . No recession is indicated. COMP can be used for stock market exit timing as discussed in this article The Use of Recession Indicators in Stock Market Timing.

 

Figure 3.1 shows the recession indicator iM-BCIg below last week’s level. An imminent recession is not signaled .

Please also refer to the BCI page

 

 

The Forward Rate Ratio between the 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields (FRR2-10) is near last week’s level and is not signaling a recession. The FRR2-10 general trend is downwards.

A description of this indicator can be found here.

 

The iM-Low Frequency Timer is back in the markets since 1/22/2019.

A description of this indicator can be found here.