iM Update – November 1, 2024

 

Market Signals Summary:

The the 3-mo Hi-Lo Index of the S&P 500 invested in the markets on July 30, 2024.  The S&P 500 Coppock Indicator invested the markets mid August 2024. All other indicators, that is the MAC-US, the  CAPE-Cycle-ID,  and the iM-Google Trend Time are invested in the stock market. The BCIg does not signal a recession as does the growth of the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Indicator.  The Forward Rate Ratio between the 2 and 10 year rates inverted beginning August 2022 an is in the process of normalizing (non-inerted state). The iM-Gold Coppock  and the iM-Silver Coppock are invested in the respective metals, as is the iM-Gold Timer. The monthly unemployment model signals a recession

 

Stock-markets:

Fig-2.-11-1-2024 The MAC-US model invested the US stock markets in first week of February 2023.

 

 

 

 

Fig-2.2-11-1-2024The 3-mo Hi-Lo Index Index of the S&P500 is at 11.86% (last week13.44%) is invested in the since markets July,30 2023.

 

 

 

Fig-2.3-11-1-2024The Coppock indicator for the S&P500 invested the the US stock markets mid August 2024.   This indicator is described here.

 

 

 

Fig-2.1-11-1-2024 The MAC-AU model generated a buy signal end  November 2023,  and is invested from the Australian stock market.

This model and its application is described in MAC-Australia: A Moving Average Crossover System for Superannuation Asset Allocations.

 

Recession:

 

Fig-3.1a-11-1-2024   BCIg is not signaling a recession.

 

 

 

Fig-3.1c-11-1-2024The growth of the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Indicator does not signal a recession.

 

 

 

Fig-3.2-11-1-2024The Forward Rate Ratio between the 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields (FRR2-10) is an inverted state since beginning August 2022 and is progressing to a non-iverted state in a week or two.

A description of this indicator can be found here.

 

 

Fig-3.3-11-1-2024The iM-Low Frequency Timer switched to bonds on 9/26/2022.

A description of this indicator can be found here.

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