iM Update – February 9, 2024


Market Signals Summary:

The S&P 500 Coppock Indicator exited the markets mid January 2024. All other indicators, that is the MAC-US, the 3-mo Hi-Lo Index of the S&P 500, the  CAPE-Cycle-ID,  and the iM-Google Trend Time are invested in the stock market. The BCIg does not signal a recession however the growth of the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Indicator continues to signal recession warning;  the Forward Rate Ratio between the 2 and 10 year rates inverted beginning August 2022;  November 2022. The iM-Gold Coppock  and the iM-Silver Coppock are invested in the respective metals, as is the iM-Gold Timer.



Fig-2.-2-9-2024 The MAC-US model invested the US stock markets in first week of February 2023.





Fig-2.2-2-9-2024The 3-mo Hi-Lo Index Index of the S&P500 is at 12.23% (last week 15.11%) is invested in the markets  the markets since  mid December 2023..




Fig-2.3-2-9-2024The Coppock indicator for the S&P500 exited the the US stock markets mid January 2024.   This indicator is described here.




Fig-2.1-2-9-2024 The MAC-AU model generated a buy signal end  November 2023,  and is invested from the Australian stock market.

This model and its application is described in MAC-Australia: A Moving Average Crossover System for Superannuation Asset Allocations.




Fig-3.1a-2-9-2024   BCIg is not signaling a recession.




Fig-3.1c-2-9-2024The growth of the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Indicator does not signal a recession.




Fig-3.2-2-9-2024The Forward Rate Ratio between the 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields (FRR2-10) inverted beginning August 2022 and is signalling a recession — the average lead time of this signal is 14 months.

A description of this indicator can be found here.



Fig-3.3-2-9-2024The iM-Low Frequency Timer switched to bonds on 9/26/2022.

A description of this indicator can be found here.

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