iM Update – July 7, 2023


Market Signals Summary:

The CAPE-Cycle-ID  has reentered the stock markets,   also  the MAC-US, the S&P 500 Coppock Indicator as well as Hi-Lo Index of the S&P 500 are invested the Stock Market.  Only the iM-Google Trend Timer remains out of the stock markets.The BCI is no longer warning of a recession;  the Forward Rate Ratio between the 2 and 10 year rates inverted beginning August 2022; and the growth of the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Indicator is signalling a recession since November 2022. The Gold Coppock is invested in gold, so is the iM-Gold Timer. The Silver Coppock model is invested in silver.


Fig-2.-7-7-2023 The MAC-US model invested the US stock markets in first week of February 2023.





Fig-2.2-7-7-2023The 3-mo Hi-Lo Index Index of the S&P500 is at +6.53% (last week +4.95%),  rentered the markets on  July 3.




Fig-2.3-7-7-2023The Coppock indicator for the S&P500 entered the the US stock markets in the first week February 2023.   This indicator is described here.




Fig-2.1-7-7-2023 The MAC-AU model generated a buy signal end August 2022,  and is invested the Australian stock market.

This model and its application is described in MAC-Australia: A Moving Average Crossover System for Superannuation Asset Allocations.




Fig-3.1a-7-7-2023   BCIg is above the trigger level that signals recession.




Fig-3.1c-7-7-2023The growth of the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Indicator after the August 18, 2022 update signals a recession. The November 18, 2022 update of the Leading Economic Indicator is signaling that the US economy is/will soon be in a recession.




Fig-3.2-7-7-2023The Forward Rate Ratio between the 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields (FRR2-10) inverted beginning August 2022 and is signalling a recession — the average lead time of this signal is 14 months.

A description of this indicator can be found here.



Fig-3.3-7-7-2023The iM-Low Frequency Timer switched to bonds on 9/26/2023.

A description of this indicator can be found here.

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