iM Update – March 4, 2022

 

Market Signals Summary:

Forward simulations show that both the  MAC US and MAC AU will exit the market next week.  The Hi -Lo Index Index of the S&P500 remains in cash, but the iM-GT Timer, and  S&P 500  Coppock Indicator  are invested in the stock markets.   The bond market model avoids high beta (long) bonds. The Gold Coppock generated a buy signal and is invested in gold, so is the iM-Gold Timer. The Silver Coppock model is also invested in silver.

Stock-markets:

Fig-2.-3-4-2022 The MAC-US model is invested in the stock market, but forward simulations show that it will exit the market next week.

 

 

 

 

Fig-2.2-3-4-2022The 3-mo Hi-Lo Index Index of the S&P500 is at -3.07% (last week -1.57%), and has exited the stock market on 1/20/22.

 

 

 

Fig-2.3-3-4-2022The Coppock indicator for the S&P500 generated a buy signal end August 2021 and is invested in stocks.   This indicator is described here.

 

 

 

Fig-2.1-3-4-2022 The MAC-AU model is invested in the Australian stock market since mid July 2020, but forward simulations show that it will exit the market next week.

This model and its application is described in MAC-Australia: A Moving Average Crossover System for Superannuation Asset Allocations.

 

Recession:

 

Fig-3.1a-3-4-2022 BCIg signals economic recovery.

 

 

 

Fig-3.1c-3-4-2022The growth of the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Indicator  signals economic recovery.

 

 

 

Fig-3.2-3-4-2022The Forward Rate Ratio between the 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields (FRR2-10) is below last week’s level.

A description of this indicator can be found here.

 

 

Fig-3.3-3-4-2022The iM-Low Frequency Timer switched into stocks on 6/15/2020.

A description of this indicator can be found here.

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