iM Update – December 30, 2022

 

Market Signals Summary:

The Hi-Lo Index of the S&P 500 invested in the markets  beginning December 2022. However, the MAC US, the iM-Google Trend Timer as well as the S&P 500 Coppock Indicator are disinvested from the markets.   The bond market model begins to favor high beta (long) bonds. The Forward Rate Ratio between the 2 and 10 year rates inverted beginning August thus signalling a recession. Also the growth of the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Indicator is sinalling a recession. The Gold Coppock is invested in gold, so is the iM-Gold Timer. The Silver Coppock model is dis-invested in silver.

Stock-markets:

Fig-2.-12-30-2022 The MAC-US model exited the US stock markets end April 2022.

 

 

 

 

Fig-2.2-12-30-2022The 3-mo Hi-Lo Index Index of the S&P500 is at +6.88% (last week 7.68%), and is invested in the stock markets since begining December 2022.

 

 

 

Fig-2.3-12-30-2022The Coppock indicator for the S&P500 generated a sell signal end July 2022 and is dis-invested in stocks.   This indicator is described here.

 

 

 

Fig-2.1-12-30-2022 The MAC-AU model generated a buy signal end August 2022,  and is invested the Australian stock market.

This model and its application is described in MAC-Australia: A Moving Average Crossover System for Superannuation Asset Allocations.

 

Recession:

 

Fig-3.1a-12-30-2022 BCIg does not signal a recession yet, however the BCIp signals a recession.

 

 

 

Fig-3.1c-12-30-2022The growth of the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Indicator after the August 18 update signals a recession. The November 18 update of the Leading Economic Indicator is signaling that the US economy is/will be soon in recession.

 

 

 

Fig-3.2-12-30-2022The Forward Rate Ratio between the 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields (FRR2-10) inverted begining August 2022 and is signalling a recession — the average lead time of this signal is 14 months.

A description of this indicator can be found here.

 

 

Fig-3.3-12-30-2022The iM-Low Frequency Timer switched to bonds on 9/26/2020.

A description of this indicator can be found here.

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