iM Update -April 24, 2020

Market Signals Summary:

The 3-mo Hi-Lo Index is out of the market since 3/5/2020 and the MAC US and the MAC AU are out of the markets since 3/26/2020.  The bond market model avoids high beta (long) bonds, and the yield curve is steepening. The Gold Coppock remains in gold but the iM-Gold Timer is in cash. The Silver Coppock model is invested in silver.

The BCI, the iM-LLI and the iM-Unemployment models all signal a recession warning.

The iM-GT Timer, based on Google Search Trends volume switched out of the markets on 3/5/2020.


Fig-2.-4-24-2020 The MAC-US model switched out of the markets on 3/26/2020. The buy-spread (green line) is below last week’s value.




Fig-2.2-4-24-2020The 3-mo Hi-Lo Index Index of the S&P500 at -18.82% is below last week’s -21.05%, and is out of the stock market since 3/5/2020.




Fig-2.3-4-24-2020The Coppock indicator for the S&P500 entered  the market on 5/9/2019 and is invested.   This indicator is described here.




Fig-2.1-4-24-2020 The MAC-AU model switch out of the markets on 3/27/2020. The buy-spread (green line) is below last week’s value.

This model and its application is described in MAC-Australia: A Moving Average Crossover System for Superannuation Asset Allocations.




Fig-3-LLI-4-24-2020 The iM-LLI which reflects mainly data for February 2020, except for the BCI, signaled a recession warning on 4/24/2020.



Fig-3.1-4-24-2020Figure 3.1 shows the recession indicator iM-BCIg below last week’s level and just below the recession trigger level thus also signaling a recession warning.

Please also refer to the BCI page



Fig-3.2-4-24-2020The Forward Rate Ratio between the 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields (FRR2-10) is above last week’s level. It is rising steeply, typically seen at a start of a recession.

A description of this indicator can be found here.


Fig-3.3-4-24-2020The iM-Low Frequency Timer switched out of stocks on 4/3/2020.

A description of this indicator can be found here.

Posted in pmp free update

Leave a Reply

With reference to Section 202(a)(11)(D) of the Investment Advisers Act: We are Engineers and not Investment Advisers, read more ...
By the mere act of reading this page and navigating this site you acknowledge, agree to, and abide by the Terms of Use / Disclaimer