iM Update – April 21, 2017

Market Signals Summary:

The MAC-US model is invested.  Also invested is the “VMNFX vs. SPY Timer”. The “3-mo Hi-Lo Index of the S&P500” may generate a sell signal soon. The monthly updated S&P500 Coppock indicator is also invested.  The MAC-AU is also invested.  The recession indicators COMP and iM-BCIg do not signal a recession.  The bond market model avoids high beta (long) bonds, and a a possible downward trend is emerging in the yield curve. Both the gold and silver Coppock models are invested, however  the iM-Gold Timer sold gold on 4/17/2017.

 

Stock-markets:

The MAC-US model generated a buy-signal 4/5/2016 and thus is invested in the stock-markets. The sell-spread (red graph) is below last week’s level and has to fall below zero to signal a sell.

 

 

The 3-mo Hi-Lo Index of the S&P500  is below last week’s level and at 5.85% (last week 7.58%) and is in the market since 12/14/2016 when it crossed the 5% threshold. A sell signal seems to be imminent.

 

 

The VMNFX vs. SPY Timer  signaled an entry into the stock  markets on 3/28/2016. For this model to exit the markets the indicator has to rise above the 2% trigger line, the indicator is near last week’s level.

 

 

The MAC-AU model is invested in the markets after it generated a buy signal on March 21, 2016. The sell-spread is up from last week’s level and has to fall below zero to signal a sell.

This model and its application is described in MAC-Australia: A Moving Average Crossover System for Superannuation Asset Allocations.

 

Recession:

Figure 3 shows the COMP below last week’s revised  level. No recession is indicated.    COMP can be used for stock market exit timing as discussed in this article The Use of Recession Indicators in Stock Market Timing.

 

 

Figure 3.1 shows the recession indicator iM-BCIg which is near last week’s level. An imminent recession is not signaled .

Please also refer to the BCI page

 

 

The Forward Rate Ratio between the 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields (FRR2-10) is near the previous week’s level and far away from signalling a recession.

A description of this indicator can be found here.