Monthly Update – October 2016


Fig-8.-10-7-2016The unemployment rate recession model (article link), has been updated with the September UER of 5.0%. Based on the historic patterns of the unemployment rate indicators prior to recessions one can reasonably conclude that the U.S. economy is not likely to go into recession anytime soon. However, the growth rate UERg continues to rise (now at -4.0%) and EMA spread of the UER narrowing (now at -0.09), supporting the trend of  the long leading indicator DAGS.

Here is the link to the full update.



The Dynamic Linearly Detrended Enhanced Aggregate Spread:

DAGS-10-7-2016 . Long leading indicator DAGS at 19 (last month 24), a level from which it has never recovered in the past .Should this downward trend continue then, according to this indicator, a recession could be expected to begin after July-2017.



Coppock Indicator for the S&P500

Fig-9.-10-7-2016The Coppock indicator for the S&P500 generated a buy signal on May 19, 2016.  This model is now in the market.   This indicator is described here.


Trade Weighted USD

USD-10-7-2016 The TW$ value has steadied, and the 6 month moving is near the 4wk average.



TIAA Real Estate Account

Fig-10.-10-7-2016The  1-year rolling return for the end of last month is 5.02%. The Vanguard REIT Index Fund is at an all-time high;  the good positive returns of TIAA Real Estate Account are expected to continue.   A sell signal is not imminent.

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