Monthly Update – July 2016


Fig-8.-7-8-2016The unemployment rate recession model (article link), has been updated with the June UER of 4.9%. Based on the historic patterns of the unemployment rate indicators prior to recessions one can reasonably conclude that the U.S. economy is not likely to go into recession anytime soon

Here is the link to the full update.



The Dynamic Linearly Detrended Enhanced Aggregate Spread:

DAGS-7-8-2016 The latest DAGS level of 35 (last month 61) is above the recession warning trigger line, indicating that it is unlikely for a recession to start during the next 9 months. However should this downward trend continue then, according to this indicator, a recession could be expected to begin after June-2017.



Coppock Indicator for the S&P500

Fig-9.-7-8-2016The Coppock indicator for the S&P500 generated a buy signal on May 19, 2016.  This model is now in the market.   This indicator is described here.


Trade Weighted USD

USD-7-8-2016 The TW$ value has fallen,  the 6 month moving average is trending downwards .



TIAA Real Estate Account

Fig-10.-7-8-2016The  1-year rolling return for the end of last month is 6.63%. The Vanguard REIT Index Fund is at an all-time high;  the good positive returns of TIAA Real Estate Account are expected to continue.   A sell signal is not imminent.

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