iM Update – May 20, 2016

Market Signals Summary:

The MAC-US model  is invested.  Also, both the “3-mo Hi-Lo Index of the S&P500” and the “VMNFX vs. SPY Timer” are invested in the markets.   The MAC-AU is also invested.  The recession indicators COMP and iM-BCIg do not signal a recession.  The bond market model avoids high beta (long) bonds, the trend of the yield spread is indeterminate. The gold and the silver model are invested.

 

Stock-markets:

The MAC-US model generated a buy-signal 4/5/2016 and thus is invested in the stock-markets. The sell-spread (red graph) is up from last week’s level and has to fall below zero to signal a sell.

 

 

The 3-mo Hi-Lo Index of the S&P500  is below last week’s level, seemingly having formed a peak. This indicator is invested in the market since 3/23/2016.  

 

 

The VMNFX vs. SPY Timer  signaled an entry into the stock  markets on 3/28/2016. For this model to exit the markets the indicator has to fall below the 2% trigger line and then rise above it.

 

 

The MAC-AU model is invested in the markets after it generated a buy signal on March 21, 2016. The sell-spread is higher than last week’s level and has to fall below zero to signal a sell.

This model and its application is described in MAC-Australia: A Moving Average Crossover System for Superannuation Asset Allocations.

 

Recession:

Figure 3 shows the COMP  is up from  last week’s upward revised level. No recession is indicated.    COMP can be used for stock market exit timing as discussed in this article The Use of Recession Indicators in Stock Market Timing.

 

 

Figure 3.1 shows the recession indicator iM-BCIg down from last week’s level. An imminent recession is not signaled .

Please also refer to the BCI page

 

 

The Forward Rate Ratio between the 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields (FRR2-10) is near last week’s level and far away from signalling a recession.

A description of this indicator can be found here.