iM Update – July 7, 2016

Market Signals Summary:

The MAC-US model  is invested.  Also, both the “3-mo Hi-Lo Index of the S&P500” and the “VMNFX vs. SPY Timer” are invested in the markets.  The monthly update S&P500 Coppock indicator entered the markets in May.  The MAC-AU is also invested.  The recession indicators COMP and iM-BCIg do not signal a recession.  The bond market model avoids high beta (long) bonds, the trend of the yield spread is indeterminate. The gold  model is invested and the silver model exited the market on June 24.

 

Stock-markets:

The MAC-US model generated a buy-signal 4/5/2016 and thus is invested in the stock-markets. The sell-spread (red graph) is near last week’s level and has to fall below zero to signal a sell.

 

 

The 3-mo Hi-Lo Index of the S&P500  is above last week’s level and at 7.15 above the sell trigger of 5.0, and invested in the market. 

 

 

The VMNFX vs. SPY Timer  signaled an entry into the stock  markets on 3/28/2016. For this model to exit the markets the indicator has to rise above the 2% trigger line.

 

 

The MAC-AU model is invested in the markets after it generated a buy signal on March 21, 2016. The sell-spread is near last week’s level and has to fall below zero to signal a sell.

This model and its application is described in MAC-Australia: A Moving Average Crossover System for Superannuation Asset Allocations.

 

Recession:

Figure 3 shows the COMP down from  last week’s  upward revised level. No recession is indicated.    COMP can be used for stock market exit timing as discussed in this article The Use of Recession Indicators in Stock Market Timing.

 

 

Figure 3.1 shows the recession indicator iM-BCIg down from last week’s level. An imminent recession is not signaled .

Please also refer to the BCI page

 

 

The Forward Rate Ratio between the 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields (FRR2-10) is near last week’s level and far away from signalling a recession.

A description of this indicator can be found here.