Monthly Update – February 6, 2015

Unemployment

Fig-8.-2-6-2015The unemployment rate recession model (article link), has been updated with the January UER of 5.7%. Based on the historic patterns of the unemployment rate indicators prior to recessions one can reasonably conclude that the U.S. economy is not likely to go into recession anytime soon

Here is the link to latest update.

 

Coppock Indicator for the S&P500

Fig-9.-2-6-2015The Coppock indicator for the S&P500 generated the last interim buy signal on January 31, 2014 and a sell signal early in January 2015.  It has continuously signaled investment in the S&P 500 from May 2010 onward, showing a gain of about 80% over this period.    This indicator is described here.

 

Trade Weighted USD

Fig-11.-2-6-2015A downward trend of the Trade Weighted USD (TW$) could signal the start of possible increases in federal fund rates. However, from the graph it is clear that the TW$ has an upward trend. Please see our article and Buffett and Welch comment

 

 

TIAA Real Estate Account

Fig-10.-2-6-2015As of end of January 2015 the 1-year rolling return is 12.6%. The Vanguard REIT Index Fund is at an all time high signaling that there is further upside potential for the TIAA Real Estate Account. A sell signal is not imminent.

Read more …

 

 

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