Market Signals Summary:
Both the MAC-US and MAC-AU generated sell end of August, however the IBH stock market models is still invested. The recession indicator COMP is lower than last week’s level, and iM-BCIg is up from last week’s level. The bond market model avoids high beta (long) bonds, the trend of the yield spread is indeterminate. Both the gold and silver model are invested.
The IBH-model is invested in the markets. The IBH model relies mainly on the long and short EMAs of the U.S. Weekly Leading Index’s growth rate. The IBH-model is described here and the latest rules can be found here .
The MAC-US model generated a sell signal end of August and thus in cash. The buy-spread is up from last week’s level. MAC-US Fig 2 shows the spreads of the moving averages. The buy spread (green graph) has to move above the zero line for a buy signal, which will happen in the next week as the spread is now zero.
The 3-mo Hi-Lo Index of the S&P500 signaled an exit from the stock market at the end of April 2015. For a buy signal to emerge the 40-day moving average (MA40) of the index must move from below to above 5.0%. The trend of MA40 is strongly upwards.
The MAC-AU model generated a sell signal end of August and thus in cash. The buy-spread is higher than last week’s level. The next buy signal will emerge once the buy spread (green graph) moves above the zero line.
This model and its application is described in MAC-Australia: A Moving Average Crossover System for Superannuation Asset Allocations.[/iM]
Recession:Figure 3 shows the COMP is down from than last week’s level, and far away from signaling recession. COMP can be used for stock market exit timing as discussed in this article The Use of Recession Indicators in Stock Market Timing.
Please also refer to the BCI page
A description of this indicator can be found here.