iM Update January 2, 2015

Market Signals Summary:

The IBH stock market model is out of the market. The MAC stock market model is invested, The recession indicator COMP is lower than last week’s revised level, and iM-BCIg is down from last week’s level. MAC-AU is again invested in the stock market. The bond market model avoids high beta (long) bonds, the yield curve has long-term steepening trend, both the gold and silver model are invested.

 

Stock-markets:

Fig-1.-1-2-2015 The IBH-model is out of the market as shown in Fig. 1. A Sell A signal was generated 27 weeks ago. The IBH-model is described here and the latest rules can be found here .

 

 

Fig-2.-1-2-2015The MAC-US model stays invested. MAC-US Fig 2 shows the spreads of the moving averages. The sell-spread is up from last week’s level. A sell signals is not imminent. The sell spread (red graph) has to move below the zero line for a sell signal.

 

 

Fig-2.1-1-2-2015The MAC-AU model is again in the market. A buy signal was generated this week. The buy-spread is higher than last week’s level and above zero. A sell signal will only be generated when the sell-spread (red graph) moves from above to below zero.

This model and its application is described in MAC-Australia: A Moving Average Crossover System for Superannuation Asset Allocations.

 

Recession:

Fig-3.-1-2-2015

In Fig. 3 one can see that COMP is down from last week’s level, and far away from signaling recession. COMP can be used for stock market exit timing as discussed in this article The Use of Recession Indicators in Stock Market Timing.

 

Fig-3.1-1-2-2015Fig. 3.1 shows our recession indicator iM-BCIg, is down from last week’s revised level. A recession is not imminent as one can clearly see.

Please also refer to the BCI page

 

Posted in pmp free update

Leave a Reply

With reference to Section 202(a)(11)(D) of the Investment Advisers Act: We are Engineers and not Investment Advisers, read more ...
By the mere act of reading this page and navigating this site you acknowledge, agree to, and abide by the Terms of Use / Disclaimer