Market Signals Summary:
The MAC-US model generated a buy signal early November, thus the model is invested in the markets. The 3-mo Hi-Lo Index of the S&P500 signaled an entry into the markets two weeks ago. The MAC-AU remains out of the markets. The recession indicators COMP and iM-BCIg do not signal a recession. The bond market model avoids high beta (long) bonds, the trend of the yield spread is indeterminate. Both the gold and silver model are invested.
The MAC-US model generated a buy-signal early November. The sell-spread is now positive, however it is already showing downward trends and the model may generate a sell signal soon.
The 3-mo Hi-Lo Index of the S&P500 signaled an entry into the markets two weeks ago. The 40-day moving average (MA40) is below last week’s level. This model may signal a market exit soon provided that market weakness continues and MA40 moves below the 5% threshold.
The MAC-AU model generated a sell signal end of August and thus in cash. The buy-spread is lower than last week’s level. The next buy signal will emerge once the buy spread (green graph) moves above the zero line.
This model and its application is described in MAC-Australia: A Moving Average Crossover System for Superannuation Asset Allocations.
Recession:Figure 3 shows the COMP is higher than last week’s level, and far away from signaling recession. COMP can be used for stock market exit timing as discussed in this article The Use of Recession Indicators in Stock Market Timing.
Please also refer to the BCI page
A description of this indicator can be found here.