iM Update – December 24, 2015

Market Signals Summary:

The MAC-US model generated a buy signal early November, thus the model is invested in the markets.  The 3-mo Hi-Lo Index of the S&P500 signaled an exit from the stock the markets on 12/17/2015.  The MAC-AU remains out of the markets.  The recession indicators COMP and iM-BCIg do not signal a recession.  The bond market model avoids high beta (long) bonds, the trend of the yield spread is indeterminate. Both the gold and silver model are invested.

 

Stock-markets:

The MAC-US model generated a buy-signal early November. The sell-spread is now positive, however it is already showing continued downward trends and the model may generate a sell signal soon.

 

 

The 3-mo Hi-Lo Index of the S&P500 signaled an exit from the stock  markets on 12/17/2015 as the 40-day moving average (MA₄₀) moved  below the 5% threshold. The  MA₄₀ continues to decline.

 

 

The MAC-AU model generated a sell signal end of August and thus in cash. The buy-spread is lower than last week’s level. The next buy signal will emerge once the buy spread (green graph) moves above the zero line.

This model and its application is described in MAC-Australia: A Moving Average Crossover System for Superannuation Asset Allocations.

 

Recession:

Figure 3 shows the COMP  is higher than  last week’s level, and far away from signaling recession.    COMP can be used for stock market exit timing as discussed in this article The Use of Recession Indicators in Stock Market Timing.

 

 

Figure 3.1 shows the recession indicator iM-BCIg lower than last week’s level. An imminent recession is not signaled .

Please also refer to the BCI page

 

 

The Forward Rate Ratio between the 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields (FRR2-10) is below last week’s level and far away from signalling a recession.

A description of this indicator can be found here.