Monthly Nov 2014


Fig-8.-12-5-2014The unemployment rate recession model  has been updated with the November UER of 5.8%. Based on the historic patterns of the unemployment rate indicators prior to recessions one can reasonably conclude that the U.S. economy is not likely to go into recession anytime soon.

Here is the link to latest update.


Coppock Indicator for the S&P500

Fig-9.-12-5-2014The Coppock indicator for the S&P500 generated the last interim buy signal on January 31, 2014.  This indicator is described here and now signals investment in the S&P500 to the end of 2014, unless the S&P500 gains 38% over shorter period


TIAA Real Estate Account

Fig-10.-12-5-2014Currently the 1-year rolling return is 11.85%. The Vanguard REIT Index Fund is near an all time high signaling that there is further upside potential for the TIAA Real Estate Account. A sell signal is not imminent.   Read more …



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