Update Archive

Please also see the Best10 weekly update on the [Systems][Best10 Portfolio Management Systems] page.
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Yesterdays release of New Houses for Sale and Sold increased in June over the revised May figure, and a further reduction of the continues unemployment claims and the strengthening S&P 500 boosted the BCI.
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The IBH stock market model is out of the market. The MAC stock market model is invested, the bond market model avoids high beta (long) bonds, the yield curve is steepening, the gold model is not invested, but the silver model is invested. The recession indicators COMP and iM-BCIg are near last week’s levels. MAC-AU is also invested.

Although the S&P 500 gained this week the BCI declined as the continues claims of the unemployed rose by 91,000 to 3,114,000 from last week’s upward revised figures; alternatively it is is an increase of 161,000 over the 2,953,000 of two weeks ago.
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Please also see the Best10 weekly update on the [Systems][Best10 Portfolio Management Systems] page.
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All the components of the BCI indicate a positive trend and BCI increased to new high of 156.9
However,  BCIg for the fourth week in succession on a downward path at 20.5 from last week’s 20.8 
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Market Signals Summary: The IBH stock market model is out of the market. The MAC stock market model is invested, the bond market model avoids high beta (long) bonds, the yield curve is steepening, the gold model is not invested, but the silver model is invested. The recession indicators COMP and iM-BCIg are both a bit lower from last week’s level. MAC-AU is also invested.

The Business Cycle Index slightly down at 155.8 from last week’s upwards revised 156.3 breaking the long trend of weekly gains.

Market Signals Summary: The IBH stock market model is out of the market. The MAC stock market model is invested, the bond market model avoids high beta (long) bonds, the yield curve is steepening, the gold model is not invested, but the silver model is invested. The recession indicators COMP and iM-BCIg are both a bit higher from last week’s level. MAC-AU is also invested

The Business Cycle Index slightly down at 155.8 from last week’s upwards revised 156.3 breaking the long trend of weekly gains.

The IBH stock market model is out of the market. The MAC stock market model is invested, the bond market model avoids high beta (long) bonds, the yield curve is steepening, the gold model is not invested, but the silver model is invested. The recession indicators COMP and iM-BCIg are both a bit lower from last week’s level. MAC-AU is also invested.

With BCI at 155.8 and BCIg at 20.9 no sign of a recessionary trend is indicated

The IBH stock market model is out of the market. The MAC stock market model is invested, the bond market model avoids high beta (long) bonds, the yield curve is steepening, the gold model is not invested, but the silver model is invested. The recession indicators COMP and iM-BCIg are both a bit higher from last week’s level. MAC-AU is also invested.

The BCI marginally increased to 155.5 and the BCIg increased slightly to 21.2; both signalling a economy far from a recession.

The IBH stock market model is out of the market. The MAC stock market model is invested, the bond market model avoids high beta (long) bonds, the yield curve is steepening, the gold model is not invested, but the silver model is invested. The recession indicator COMP is higher from last week’s level, and iM BCIg is also higher. MAC-AU is also invested.

Positive are the further decreases in the seasonally adjusted insured unemployment, for the week ending May 25 the number was 2,952,000, a decrease of 52,000 from the preceding week’s upward revised level of 3,004,000. Negative is the slight -1.1% downward trend of this week’s 5 day average of the S&P 500.
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The IBH stock market model is out of the market. The MAC stock market model is invested, the bond market model avoids high beta (long) bonds, the yield curve is steepening again, the gold model is not invested, but the silver model is invested. The recession indicator COMP is higher from last week’s level, and iM BCIg is also higher. MAC-AU is also invested.

This week negative influence on the BCI, namely that the S&P 500 is slightly down and the continued claims of the insured unemployed has risen, could not outweigh the strong gains of the previous weeks, and the moving averages of these elevate the BCI to 155.3 a gain of 0.23% on last week. The BCIg is also up at 20.8 (BCIg is the 6-month smoothed annualized growth of BCI and six added to it) For more information please visit the BCI page
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The IBH stock market model is out of the market. The MAC stock market model is invested, the bond market model avoids high beta (long) bonds, the yield curve may be steepening again, the gold model is not invested, but the silver model is invested. The recession indicator COMP is higher from last week’s level, and iM BCIg is also higher. MAC-AU is also invested.

The BCI keeps on climbing, not only driven by the gains of the S&P 500; the continues unemployment dropped by a massive 112 thousand from last week’s upwards revised figure of 3.024 million to 2.912 million. A further positive economic trend is the quantity of new houses sold, 454 thousand estimated for April, which is up from the upward revised figure of 444, from 411 thousand of March.
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The IBH stock market model is out of the market. The MAC stock market model is invested, the bond market model avoids high beta (long) bonds, the yield curve may be steepening again, the gold model is not invested, but the silver model is invested. The recession indicator COMP is lower from last week’s level. We have added MAC-AU for the Australian market.
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The BCI continues its upward trend to a level of 152.8, with the BCIp on a 100, by past performance, a recession is not in sight.
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The IBH stock market model is out of the market. The MAC stock market model is invested, the bond market model avoids high beta (long) bonds, the yield curve may resume its steepening trend, the gold model is not invested, but the silver model is invested. The recession indicator COMP is little changed from last week’s level.

The BCI continues its upward trend to a level of 152.3 after strong employment reports and an even stronger rally of the S&P500

The IBH stock market model is out of the market. The MAC stock market model is invested but the indicators may be rolling over, the bond market model avoids high beta (long) bonds, the yield curve may be flattening, the gold model is not invested, but silver model is invested since last week. The recession indicator COMP is little changed from last week’s level.

Based on the historic patterns of the unemployment rate indicators prior to recessions one can reasonably conclude that the U.S. economy is currently not in a recession. The modified S&P Coppock is invested.