Market Signals Summary:
The Hi-Lo Index of the S&P 500, the iM-Google Trend Timer and the CAPE-Cycle-ID are out of the stock markets. However, the MAC-US as well as the S&P 500 Coppock Indicator are invested the Stock Market. All our recession indicators are signalling a recession: BCIg is signalling a recession since March 16, 2023; the Forward Rate Ratio between the 2 and 10 year rates inverted beginning August 2022 thus signalling a recession; and the growth of the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Indicator is signalling a recession since November 2022. The Gold Coppock is invested in gold, so is the iM-Gold Timer. The Silver Coppock model is invested in silver.
Stock-markets:
![Fig-2.-6-9-2023](https://imarketsignals.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/Fig-2.-6-9-2023-100x100.png)
The
MAC-US model invested the US stock markets in first week of February 2023.
![Fig-2.2-6-9-2023](https://imarketsignals.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/Fig-2.2-6-9-2023-100x100.png)
The
3-mo Hi-Lo Index Index of the S&P500 is at +1.31% (last week +1.04%), and exited the stock markets March 7, 2023.
![Fig-2.3-6-9-2023](https://imarketsignals.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/Fig-2.3-6-9-2023-100x100.png)
The Coppock indicator for the S&P500 entered the the US stock markets in the first week February 2023. This indicator is described
here.
![Fig-2.1-6-9-2023](https://imarketsignals.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/Fig-2.1-6-9-2023-100x100.png)
The MAC-AU model generated a buy signal end August 2022, and is invested the Australian stock market.
This model and its application is described in MAC-Australia: A Moving Average Crossover System for Superannuation Asset Allocations.
Recession:
![Fig-3.1a-6-9-2023](https://imarketsignals.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/Fig-3.1a-6-9-2023-100x100.png)
BCIg signaled a recession March 16, 2023, but by June 9, 2023 has recovered and is above the trigger level that signals recession.
![Fig-3.1c-6-9-2023](https://imarketsignals.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/Fig-3.1c-6-9-2023-100x100.png)
The growth of the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Indicator after the August 18 update signals a recession. The November 18 update of the Leading Economic Indicator is signaling that the US economy is/will soon be in a recession.
![Fig-3.2-6-9-2023](https://imarketsignals.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/Fig-3.2-6-9-2023-100x100.png)
The Forward Rate Ratio between the 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields (FRR2-10) inverted beginning August 2022 and is signalling a recession — the average lead time of this signal is 14 months.
A description of this indicator can be found here.
![Fig-3.3-6-9-2023](https://imarketsignals.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/Fig-3.3-6-9-2023-100x100.png)
The iM-Low Frequency Timer switched to bonds on 9/26/2023.
A description of this indicator can be found here.